530 Sackett Lake Rd

Mongaup Valley, NY 12701

$425,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,452 sqft · Built 1930 · MultiFamily · Active · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,264/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$700
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-1,140/mo
• Annual: $-13,680/yr
• Cap rate: 3.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.50%
• DSCR: 0.49
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (47.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (46.7% below list).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $224k (47.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Kenneth L Rutherford School (math 12% / reading 20%, grade F, #2,020 of 2,108 statewide, top 96%, 492 students, 81% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $425k implies a 372% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 1.9% in Mongaup Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,264/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 814% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.