530 Sackett Lake Rd · Mongaup Valley, NY 12701

$425,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,452 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1930 1.20 ac lot $173/sqft · 15% below area Est $503k · 15% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful and Spacious Cape Home in Sackett Lake Area! Discover this solid, well-maintained Cape Cod-style home, legally zoned as a two-family residence, with flexibility to be used as a single-family home. Located just steps from Sackett Lake, the property includes beach access for lakeside enjoyment. The main level welcomes you with an entry room leading into a kitchen, a formal dining room, and an elegant living room featuring a stunning granite stone fireplace. There’s one spacious bedroom on the main floor, as well as a second bedroom and a full tiled bathroom. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms, a second kitchen, and another full bath—perfect for guests or extended family. The home showcases beautiful hardwood flooring throughout and custom built-ins for added character. This home is like a time capsule and needs to be undated to the modern needs. but well worth it since its functional . The full basement, once finished as extra living space, is now unfinished but includes a full bath—offering great potential for future expansion. Other highlights include oil heat, town sewer, and a generous 1.2-acre lot, plus an additional 0.25-acre parcel with possible building potential. Conveniently located near all Sullivan County amenities, this home offers space, flexibility, and an unbeatable location in a lake community

Key facts

• 1.2 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1930

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (47.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (46.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (47.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 1.9% in Mongaup Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Kenneth L Rutherford School (math 12% / reading 20%, grade F, #2,020 of 2,108 statewide, top 96%, 492 students, 81% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,264/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 814% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $425k implies a 372% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $223,612 (47.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.50%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $502,620
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: -15.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $158,887
• Equity at exit: $382,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $525,052
• Equity at exit: $825,682

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12701

• Home prices YoY: 16.7%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,264 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$523 /mo · $6,271/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-1,140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,707

Max offer price $223,612

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-899	-5% $-1,020	+0% $-1,140	+5% $-1,260	+10% $-1,381
Rent	-10% $-1,319	-5% $-1,229	+0% $-1,140	+5% $-1,051	+10% $-961
Rate	-1.0pp $-926	-0.5pp $-1,032	base $-1,140	+0.5pp $-1,250	+1.0pp $-1,362

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $425,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $425,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $425,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $425,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $425,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-04-14
    listed $425,000 Active 1375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1375 chars)

    Beautiful and Spacious Cape Home in Sackett Lake Area! Discover this solid, well-maintained Cape Cod-style home, legally zoned as a two-family residence, with flexibility to be used as a single-family home. Located just steps from Sackett Lake, the property includes beach access for lakeside enjoyment. The main level welcomes you with an entry room leading into a kitchen, a formal dining room, and an elegant living room featuring a stunning granite stone fireplace. There’s one spacious bedroom on the main floor, as well as a second bedroom and a full tiled bathroom. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms, a second kitchen, and another full bath—perfect for guests or extended family. The home showcases beautiful hardwood flooring throughout and custom built-ins for added character. This home is like a time capsule and needs to be undated to the modern needs. but well worth it since its functional . The full basement, once finished as extra living space, is now unfinished but includes a full bath—offering great potential for future expansion. Other highlights include oil heat, town sewer, and a generous 1.2-acre lot, plus an additional 0.25-acre parcel with possible building potential. Conveniently located near all Sullivan County amenities, this home offers space, flexibility, and an unbeatable location in a lake community

17. 2026-01-01
    historical
18. 2025-06-21
    listed $475,000 Active
19. 2001-10-17
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,271 · $523/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,727 · $561/mo
• Expected delta: +$456/yr (+$38/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$6,271
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,173
• − Management: −$2,173
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$21,747
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,219
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mongaup Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Sullivan County · 12,197 people
• City population: 2,661
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 12,197
• Household income: $57,222
• Rent vs Own: 63.8% rent · 36.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 31% Black 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.71%
• Current HPI: 507.739
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+372.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $425,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-21 Listed $475,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,271 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.