16631 Patricia Ave

Montague, CA 96064

$89,900B-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 201 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,488/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$243
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $461/mo
• Annual: $5,531/yr
• Cap rate: 12.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.97%
• DSCR: 1.98
• 1% rule: 1.66%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#577 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, employment D.
• Yreka Union High (town): math 25% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #630 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $185k (67%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?