16631 Patricia Ave · Montague, CA 96064

$89,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 201 Days on market

Built 1977 1.01 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on Market, seller Relocating, Beautiful Home on Copco lake just 30 minutes from Yreka Relax on your Back deck while watching wildlife step into your yard to greet you, Tastefully done this property Is move in ready, many improvements done since it was last sold, Detached Shop and storage building, Remote bedroom upstairs with full bath and antique wood burning stove, Sit on your front porch and enjoy the beautiful yard or walk down to your backyard lake for fishing. all of this and more, Don't miss out.

Key facts

• 1.01 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1977

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property has one total unit; No common walls with neighboring properties; Lot reported over 40,000 sq ft (assessor's data); Year built sourced from public records; Parcel number 004430131
• HOA & community: Rural community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage with single door; Two parking spaces (garage/total)
• Utilities: Sewer: Other; Water: Other; Power: (standard electric service)
• Home design: House; Two stories; Entry on level 1; No attached accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Certified 433a foundation
• Exterior features: Rural setting; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Primary bedroom included
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Shower(s) present
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wood heating; Wall/window cooling
• Interior features: Two-story layout; Front door entry; Living room fireplace; Primary bedroom; Living room; Kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Laundry available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#577 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, employment D.
• Yreka Union High (town): math 25% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #630 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $185k (67%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.97%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,200
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17116 Janice	0.39mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-3%)	8mo	$227,500	$120	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $14,867
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $51,070
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96064

• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,488 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,468/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $904

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 201 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 200 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $89,900 Active 199 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 199 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 198 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 197 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 195 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 194 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 191 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 190 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 189 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 187 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 185 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 184 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 183 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 182 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 181 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $120,000
19. 2026-04-24
    price $140,000
20. 2026-04-10
    price $150,000
21. 2026-03-26
    price $165,000
22. 2026-03-06
    price $185,000
23. 2026-02-20
    price $195,000
24. 2026-02-17
    status Active
25. 2025-07-11
    historical
26. 2025-06-24
    price $249,000
27. 2025-05-23
    price $262,000
28. 2025-04-23
    listed $275,000 Active
29. 2023-07-10
    price $310,000
30. 2021-06-30
    soldstatus $301,000
31. 2021-06-25
    soldstatus $301,000 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Back on Market, seller Relocating, Beautiful Home on Copco lake just 30 minutes from Yreka Relax on your Back deck while watching wildlife step into your yard to greet you, Tastefully done this property Is move in ready, many improvements done since it was last sold, Detached Shop and storage building, Remote bedroom upstairs with full bath and antique wood burning stove, Sit on your front porch and enjoy the beautiful yard or walk down to your backyard lake for fishing. all of this and more, Don't miss out.

32. 2021-03-01
    listed $290,000 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Back on Market, seller Relocating, Beautiful Home on Copco lake just 30 minutes from Yreka Relax on your Back deck while watching wildlife step into your yard to greet you, Tastefully done this property Is move in ready, many improvements done since it was last sold, Detached Shop and storage building, Remote bedroom upstairs with full bath and antique wood burning stove, Sit on your front porch and enjoy the beautiful yard or walk down to your backyard lake for fishing. all of this and more, Don't miss out.

33. 2018-01-22
    soldstatus $249,000
34. 2018-01-22
    soldstatus $249,000
35. 2017-10-01
    listed $249,000
36. 2003-07-09
    soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,468 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,468 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,855
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$2,468
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,428
• − Management: −$1,428
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $4,430
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,063
• After-tax cash flow: $4,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yreka Union High
• NCES district ID: 0643410
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $34,206
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #8184
• State rank: #630 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Montague

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #577
• US rank: #18799

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,696

Population outlook (Siskiyou County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,337 people
• By 2030: 36,930 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 32,367 · -17.7%
• By 2050: 29,030 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 23,534 · -40.2%
• By 2100: 19,312 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Native American 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Russian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Siskiyou

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 38.8% · R 58.0% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+20.7 2012: R+15.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.26%
• Current HPI: 140.7129
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+9.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $140,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $150,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $165,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $185,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $195,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-17 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $249,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $262,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-23 Listed $275,000 CRMLS
• 2023-07-10 Price Changed $310,000 SMLS
• 2021-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $301,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-25 Sold (MLS) $301,000 SMLS
• 2021-03-01 Listed $290,000 SMLS
• 2018-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $249,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-22 Sold (MLS) $249,000 SMLS
• 2017-10-01 Listed $249,000 SMLS
• 2003-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,468 · -27.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.