1037 Spring Villa Dr

Jacksonville, NC 28540

$159,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 891 sqft · Built 1986 · Townhouse · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,189/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-9/mo
• Annual: $-112/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-112/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (25.7% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $119k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#111 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Creek Elementary (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #574 of 1,410 statewide, top 43%, 490 students, 66% FRL); Southwest Middle (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #317 of 475 statewide, top 68%, 527 students, 64% FRL); Southwest High (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #311 of 535 statewide, top 60%, 702 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 37% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $160k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.