1037 Spring Villa Dr · Jacksonville, NC 28540

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 891 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1986 4,748 sqft lot Est $156k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated and move-in ready! This home features an updated kitchen with plenty of cabinet space, a movable center island with additional cabinets and drawers, and all appliances included. Freshly painted doors, walls, and trim give the home a clean, modern feel. Enjoy updated bathrooms with ceramic tile and durable LVP flooring throughout the home. Additional highlights include a storage closet and a fully fenced backyard--perfect for privacy and outdoor enjoyment. Relax or entertain on the 10x12 Trex deck, offering low-maintenance outdoor living.

Key facts

• Storage closet
• Updated kitchen
• Ceramic tile

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• MOVABLE CENTER ISLAND
• CERAMIC TILE
• LVP FLOORING
• STORAGE CLOSET
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-112/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#111 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Creek Elementary (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #574 of 1,410 statewide, top 43%, 490 students, 66% FRL); Southwest Middle (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #317 of 475 statewide, top 68%, 527 students, 64% FRL); Southwest High (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #311 of 535 statewide, top 60%, 702 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 37% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $160k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,872 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,925
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1043 Spring Villa Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	891 (0%)	1mo	$155,500	$175	98

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-24,801
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-15,139
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28540

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 386
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,189 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $519/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,201

Max offer price $158,247

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $81	-5% $36	+0% $-9	+5% $-55	+10% $-100
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-56	+0% $-9	+5% $38	+10% $85
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $31	base $-9	+0.5pp $-51	+1.0pp $-93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Briarcreek Ln Unit 113 Jacksonville, NC	2.0	2.0	925	$1,000	$1.08	22d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-22
   listed $159,900 Active
4. 2009-11-25
   soldstatus $73,000
5. 1999-06-11
   soldstatus $46,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $519 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,311 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$792/yr (+$66/mo · 152.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$519
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,141
• − Management: −$1,141
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$2,945
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$707
• After-tax cash flow: $595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onslow County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703450
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,076
• Composite: 38.66/100
• National rank: #4148
• State rank: #84 of 178 in NC

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #6991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Onslow County · 164,453 people
• City population: 96,397
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 49,141
• Household income: $65,625
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1304.0

Population outlook (Onslow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,789 people
• By 2030: 194,463 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 193,629 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 193,248 · +1.8%
• By 2075: 196,995 · +3.8%
• By 2100: 201,513 · +6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onslow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.5% · R 67.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.5pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+34.6 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.11%
• Current HPI: 219.5571
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.47%
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+243.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-27 Contingent — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $159,900 Hive MLS
• 2009-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $519 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.