144 Pine Branch Gln

Holly Lake Ranch, TX 75765

$249,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,237 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 336 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,833/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$461
• HOA: −$269
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-588/mo
• Annual: $-7,055/yr
• Cap rate: 3.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.12%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-588 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (41.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (26.4% below list).
• It's been on market 336 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (41.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Harmony ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #224 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harmony El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 313 students, 62% FRL); Harmony J H (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 258 students, 46% FRL); Harmony H S (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 282 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 219 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $71k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 44% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 336 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.