136 Forest Rd

Milford city (balance), CT 06461

$339,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · Built 1941 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,842/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax + insurance: −$641
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $-174/mo
• Annual: $-2,083/yr
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.19%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $94,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (16.2% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $284k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Milford School District (urban): math 44% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #73 of 153 in CT (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Orange Avenue School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #237 of 553 statewide, top 45%, 404 students, 23% FRL); Harborside Middle School (math 51% / reading 65%, grade B, #55 of 175 statewide, top 32%, 403 students, 23% FRL); Joseph A. Foran High School (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #52 of 194 statewide, top 31%, 765 students, 26% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.6% in Milford city (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.