424 W Cherry Ln Trlr 92

Meridian, ID 83642

$178,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2019 · Manufactured · Pending · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,093/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax + insurance: −$297
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $423/mo
• Annual: $5,076/yr
• Cap rate: 9.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.19%
• DSCR: 1.45
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $49,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $178k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $178k).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#10 in ID, #1,176 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• Joint School District No. 2 (suburban): math 53% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #11 of 92 in ID (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Meridian Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #217 of 357 statewide, top 62%, 448 students, 66% FRL); Meridian Academy (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #141 of 169 statewide, top 87%, 171 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 23% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 60% district-wide (-29 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Joint School District No. 2 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 762 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,129 units permitted in Ada County in 2024 (414 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ada County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.8% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.1% in Meridian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.