424 W Cherry Ln Trlr 92 · Meridian, ID 83642

$178,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 54 Days on market

Built 2019 Est $141k · 26% over ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream home in the heart of Meridian, Idaho! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home built in 2019 is one not to miss! Step inside to discover an open-concept living area that allows for relaxation or space to entertain. The living room is a haven of relaxation with ample space for you to be able to unwind after a long day. The windows not only flood the rooms with ample sunlight but bring a warm feeling throughout the home. The kitchen features modern appliances, ample counter space, and sleek cabinetry that provides plenty of storage. The primary suite offers a spacious bedroom and an en-suite bathroom. The bathroom features dual vanities, soaking tub & separa

Key facts

• Ample sunlight
• Sleek cabinetry
• Primary suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• AMPLE SUNLIGHT
• SLEEK CABINETRY
• PRIMARY SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $178k).
• Recommended offer: $173k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.1% in Meridian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#10 in ID, #1,176 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• Joint School District No. 2 (suburban): math 53% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #11 of 92 in ID (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Meridian Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #217 of 357 statewide, top 62%, 448 students, 66% FRL); Meridian Academy (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #141 of 169 statewide, top 87%, 171 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 23% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 60% district-wide (-29 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Joint School District No. 2 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 762 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,129 units permitted in Ada County in 2024 (414 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ada County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.8% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,660 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.19%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $141,232
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
700 Fairview #173	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+2%)	1mo	$170,000	$114	61
700 E Fairview Ave #185	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	20mo	$139,900	$97	48
700 E Fairview Ave #139	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+7%)	14mo	$149,900	$96	42
700 E Fairview Ave #62	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,647 (+13%)	4mo	$130,000	$79	40
700 E Fairview Ave #151	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-14%)	21mo	$180,000	$143	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-86
• Equity at exit: $26,540

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $42,191
• Equity at exit: $15,390

Cash invested: $49,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83642

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 762
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,093 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$222 /mo · $2,670/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,557

Max offer price $178,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $546	-5% $485	+0% $423	+5% $362	+10% $300
Rent	-10% $258	-5% $340	+0% $423	+5% $506	+10% $588
Rate	-1.0pp $513	-0.5pp $468	base $423	+0.5pp $377	+1.0pp $330

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,500
• Closing costs: $5,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
395 W Cranmer Dr Meridian, ID	3.0	1.5	1224	$1,895	$1.55	4d	1	0.29mi
1685 NW 13th Ave Meridian, ID	3.0	2.0	1227	$2,050	$1.67	15d	1	0.52mi
537 W Idaho Ave Meridian, ID	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,500	$1.50	15d	1	0.56mi
539 W Idaho Ave Meridian, ID	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	15d	1	0.57mi
1339 W Sandalwood Dr Meridian, ID	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,995	$1.71	4d	1	0.63mi
1069 W Pine Ave #3 Meridian, ID	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,496	$1.48	4d	1	0.67mi
1033 W Pine Ave Apt 3 Meridian, ID	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,401	$1.38	4d	1	0.67mi
1510 W Storey St Meridian, ID	3.0	2.0	1573	$1,989	$1.26	24d	1	0.68mi
2686 N Vallin Ave Meridian, ID	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,350	$1.50	24d	1	0.71mi
2724 N Sommersby Way Meridian, ID	3.0	2.0	1624	$2,200	$1.35	24d	1	0.78mi
2985 N Meridian Rd Unit 102 Meridian, ID	2.0	1.5	1186	$1,550	$1.31	4d	1	0.89mi
1067 N Crestley Ave Meridian, ID	3.0	2.0	1292	$2,145	$1.66	4d	1	0.94mi
2835 NW 12th Dr Meridian, ID	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,500	$1.37	4d	1	0.94mi
3104 N Venable Ln Meridian, ID	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1164	$2,595	$2.23	4d	17	0.96mi
689 W Pebblestone Ln Meridian, ID	2.0–3.0	2.5	1345	$2,500	$1.86	24d	12	0.98mi
992 E Grouse Dr Meridian, ID	4.0	2.0	1654	$2,700	$1.63	11d	1	1.08mi
512 Kearney Pl Meridian, ID	3.0	2.0	1168	$2,000	$1.71	4d	1	1.32mi
2455 W Baystone Dr Meridian, ID	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,250	$1.68	4d	1	1.33mi
303 W Pennwood St Meridian, ID	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$2,288	$2.26	4d	13	1.34mi
1440 N Locust Grove Rd Meridian, ID	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.0	1112	$2,275	$2.04	4d	9	1.37mi
1241 E Ringneck Ct Meridian, ID	4.0	2.0	1718	$2,245	$1.31	4d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2024-09-20
   status Pending
2. 2024-09-06
   status Pending
3. 2024-08-14
   status Pending
4. 2024-07-30
   price $178,000
5. 2024-07-28
   price $185,000
6. 2024-07-25
   status Active
7. 2024-07-24
   status Pending
8. 2024-07-13
   price $188,000
9. 2024-06-28
   price $195,000
10. 2024-06-21
    listed $210,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,971
• − Property taxes: −$2,670
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,009
• − Management: −$2,009
• − Depreciation: −$5,178
• Taxable income: $2,384
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$572
• After-tax cash flow: $4,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joint School District No. 2
• NCES district ID: 1602100
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,573
• Composite: 52.42/100
• National rank: #1576
• State rank: #11 of 92 in ID

Livability — Meridian

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1176

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meridian, ID
• County: Ada County · 522,161 people
• City population: 138,302
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• Population (ZIP): 62,279
• Household income: $96,909
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1574.0

Population outlook (Ada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 535,818 people
• By 2030: 585,751 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 682,435 · +27.4%
• By 2050: 775,818 · +44.8%
• By 2075: 994,458 · +85.6%
• By 2100: 1,148,884 · +114.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ada

• 2024 margin: R (+10.3) · D 43.4% · R 53.8% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.2pp · 2024: -10.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.3 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+11.3 2008: R+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -178.45%
• Current HPI: 321.2588
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.84%
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

-15.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2024-09-20 Pending — IMLS
• 2024-09-06 Pending — IMLS
• 2024-08-14 Pending — IMLS
• 2024-07-30 Price Changed $178,000 IMLS
• 2024-07-28 Price Changed $185,000 IMLS
• 2024-07-25 Relisted — IMLS
• 2024-07-24 Pending — IMLS
• 2024-07-13 Price Changed $188,000 IMLS
• 2024-06-28 Price Changed $195,000 IMLS
• 2024-06-21 Listed $210,000 IMLS