2139 VT Route 30

Townshend, VT 05353

$214,900D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,468 sqft · Built 1800 · SingleFamily · Pending · 563 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,882/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$485
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-125/mo
• Annual: $-1,496/yr
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $60,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (12.4% below list).
• It's been on market 563 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $188k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Watch-outs: built in 1800 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Windham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Windham County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $115k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 563 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1800 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.