2139 VT Route 30 · Townshend, VT 05353

$214,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,468 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 563 Days on market

Built 1800 2.95 ac lot ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

HIGHEST & BEST OFFER BY 10:00 AM 5/20 Great days ahead for the buyer of this stately, manor styled home on close to three (3) acres. You have to see the interior to believe it. Dated? Yes, but solid bones. Crazy nice wood floors, classic built-ins & style. So many 'nooks & crannies. Cavernous, dry & clean basement. Exterior: 'challenged', but I have all the bids to bring it to 'good' condition & the techies are ready to complete exterior reno. With the right investment in R & I, you have a one of kind home in southern Vermont, right off a classic town square, near Middle/Highschool. Perfectly 'livable' to occupy & work on at same time! PLEASE NOTE:

Key facts

• Wood floors
• 2.95 acre lot
• 3 garage spots

Tags

• WOOD FLOORS
• SOUTHERN VERMONT LOCATION
• CLASSIC TOWN SQUARE NEARBY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is foreclosed/bank-owned/REO; Auction scheduled (auction details available)

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage
• Utilities: Drilled well for water; Septic system; 200 amp electrical service with circuit breakers; Cable and DSL internet available; LP/bottle gas available
• Home design: Carriage, Colonial, and Farmhouse architectural influences; White exterior
• Construction: Built around 1800; Wood frame construction with wood siding; Slate roof
• Exterior features: Level and wooded lot; Circular gravel driveway; Public road frontage (approximately 175 ft)

Interior

• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heat; Wood heating; Hot air system
• Interior features: 14 total rooms; Basement with interior and exterior access; Basement is concrete and unfinished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Windham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Windham County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 563 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $115k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1800 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,228 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 563 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1800 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $8,889
• Equity at exit: $86,880

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $54,744
• Equity at exit: $126,756

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05353

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,882 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,742/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,040

Max offer price $192,873

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3	-5% $-64	+0% $-125	+5% $-186	+10% $-246
Rent	-10% $-273	-5% $-199	+0% $-125	+5% $-50	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $-16	-0.5pp $-70	base $-125	+0.5pp $-180	+1.0pp $-237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-02
   status Active
3. 2026-04-24
   historical Active with Contract
4. 2026-03-23
   status Active
5. 2026-03-20
   historical
6. 2025-12-19
   status Active
7. 2025-09-17
   historical
8. 2025-09-17
   historical Active with Contract
9. 2025-09-17
   status Active
10. 2025-09-16
    historical
11. 2025-08-31
    historical Active with Contract
12. 2025-07-23
    status Active
13. 2025-07-11
    status Pending
14. 2025-03-17
    historical Active with Contract
15. 2025-03-14
    historical
16. 2025-02-20
    historical Active with Contract
17. 2025-02-12
    price $214,900
18. 2024-12-16
    price $249,900
19. 2024-11-20
    status Active
20. 2024-11-19
    historical
21. 2024-09-18
    status Active
22. 2024-09-11
    historical
23. 2024-08-21
    price $319,900
24. 2024-07-03
    listed $329,900 Active
25. 2021-08-16
    soldstatus $279,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,742 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,742 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$4,742
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,807
• − Management: −$1,807
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$5,133
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,232
• After-tax cash flow: $-264/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Townshend

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Townshend, VT
• Population (ZIP): 1,358

Population outlook (Windham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,432 people
• By 2030: 38,472 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 33,954 · -16.0%
• By 2050: 29,774 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 22,351 · -44.7%
• By 2100: 15,961 · -60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Windham

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.7) · D 69.6% · R 26.9% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: 48.1pp · 2024: 42.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.7 2020: D+47.3 2016: D+42.0 2012: D+49.2 2008: D+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Current HPI: 161.6721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-23.2% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-24 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-23 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-20 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-12-19 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-09-17 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-09-17 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2025-09-17 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-09-16 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-08-31 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2025-07-23 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-07-11 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2025-03-17 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2025-03-14 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-02-20 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2025-02-12 Price Changed $214,900 PrimeMLS
• 2024-12-16 Price Changed $249,900 PrimeMLS
• 2024-11-20 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2024-11-19 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2024-09-18 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2024-09-11 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2024-08-21 Price Changed $319,900 PrimeMLS
• 2024-07-03 Listed $329,900 PrimeMLS
• 2021-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $279,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,742 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.