19 Crescent Ln

Lake Mohegan, NY 10579

$675,000D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,036 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,557/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,540
• Tax + insurance: −$1,608
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$957
• Net cashflow: $-1,547/mo
• Annual: $-18,566/yr
• Cap rate: 3.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.82%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $189,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $675k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $402k (40.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $456k (32.5% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($655k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $402k (40.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $72k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $68k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#417 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Putnam Valley Central School District (suburban): math 73% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #91 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Putnam Valley Elementary School (math 87% / reading 82%, grade A+, #93 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 554 students, 19% FRL); Putnam Valley Middle School (math 57% / reading 65%, grade B+, #150 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 473 students, 17% FRL); Putnam Valley High School (math 92% / reading 24%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 503 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $430k; list at $675k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$116k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.