19 Crescent Ln · Lake Mohegan, NY 10579

$675,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,036 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1973 1.45 ac lot $332/sqft · 6% below area Est $720k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Start the New Year off, Moving in the Right Direction with this Beautiful Spacious 4 Bedroom, 3 Full Bathroom Raised Ranch. Inside, you are Welcomed into an Oversized Family Room with Vaulted Ceilings and Fireplace, Large Eat-In Kitchen with lots of Natural Light and Mountain Views, Formal Dining Room w/sliders leading to Deck Overlooking large Property and Above Ground Pool. Hardwood Floors throughout, On Main Floor is 2 Large Bedrooms with Tons of Closet Space, Remolded Full Bathrooms, The Master Bedroom has Walk in Closet and In-Suite Bathroom, The Finished Lower Level spans the Entire Length of the Home, with Additional Living Room with Fireplace, Large Bedroom, Full Bathroom, Laundry Room, Storage and Attached Two Car Garage. Excellent School System and Neighborhood! Truly a Gem, Nestled on such a Lovely Piece of Property! Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Below Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Attached,

Key facts

• 1.45 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Additional annual fee of $300 for pond maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two-car garage; No carport
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electric service by NYSEG; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Private trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Finished walk-out basement; Scuttle attic; Located on a cul-de-sac
• Construction: Built with advanced framing technique
• Exterior features: Lighting; Rain gutters; Back yard; Front yard; Landscaped grounds; Partially wooded; Stone/brick wall; Views; Shed(s); Above-ground private pool with pool cover and solar cover; Pool equipment and cover provided; Generator

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Wine refrigerator; Kitchen island; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms on multiple levels (two levels total)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Primary bathroom included
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Baseboard heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Primary bathroom; Recessed lighting; Storage; Bay windows; Blinds; Deck and patio
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry room in basement; In-basement laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $675k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $402k (40.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $456k (32.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $402k (40.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#417 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Putnam Valley Central School District (suburban): math 73% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #91 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Putnam Valley Elementary School (math 87% / reading 82%, grade A+, #93 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 554 students, 19% FRL); Putnam Valley Middle School (math 57% / reading 65%, grade B+, #150 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 473 students, 17% FRL); Putnam Valley High School (math 92% / reading 24%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 503 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $72k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $68k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$116k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($655k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $430k; list at $675k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $401,680 (40.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.82%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $719,553
• List price: $675,000
• Delta: -2.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Crescent Ln	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,230 (+10%)	5mo	$690,000	$309	74
255 Church Rd	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,288 (+12%)	18mo	$570,000	$249	47
262 Oscawana Lake Rd	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,122 (+4%)	14mo	$595,000	$280	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $269,446
• Equity at exit: $608,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.61×
• Total profit: $871,694
• Equity at exit: $1,311,377

Cash invested: $189,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10579

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,557 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,540
• Tax from tax record: −$1,327 /mo · $15,918/yr
• Insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$957
• Net cashflow: $-1,547

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,516

Max offer price $401,680

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,165	-5% $-1,356	+0% $-1,547	+5% $-1,738	+10% $-1,929
Rent	-10% $-1,907	-5% $-1,727	+0% $-1,547	+5% $-1,367	+10% $-1,187
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,207	-0.5pp $-1,376	base $-1,547	+0.5pp $-1,722	+1.0pp $-1,900

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $168,750
• Closing costs: $20,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $675,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $699,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $699,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $699,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $699,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $699,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $699,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $699,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $699,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $699,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $699,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $699,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $699,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $699,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $699,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $715,000 Active 1848-char remark
17. 2026-04-28
    historical $715,000 1848-char remark
18. 2019-07-17
    soldstatus $430,000 Sold 924-char remark

    Show marketing remark (924 chars)

    Start the New Year off, Moving in the Right Direction with this Beautiful Spacious 4 Bedroom, 3 Full Bathroom Raised Ranch. Inside, you are Welcomed into an Oversized Family Room with Vaulted Ceilings and Fireplace, Large Eat-In Kitchen with lots of Natural Light and Mountain Views, Formal Dining Room w/sliders leading to Deck Overlooking large Property and Above Ground Pool. Hardwood Floors throughout, On Main Floor is 2 Large Bedrooms with Tons of Closet Space, Remolded Full Bathrooms, The Master Bedroom has Walk in Closet and In-Suite Bathroom, The Finished Lower Level spans the Entire Length of the Home, with Additional Living Room with Fireplace, Large Bedroom, Full Bathroom, Laundry Room, Storage and Attached Two Car Garage. Excellent School System and Neighborhood! Truly a Gem, Nestled on such a Lovely Piece of Property! Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Below Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Attached,

19. 2019-05-14
    soldstatus $430,000
20. 2019-03-09
    status Pending 924-char remark

    Show marketing remark (924 chars)

    Start the New Year off, Moving in the Right Direction with this Beautiful Spacious 4 Bedroom, 3 Full Bathroom Raised Ranch. Inside, you are Welcomed into an Oversized Family Room with Vaulted Ceilings and Fireplace, Large Eat-In Kitchen with lots of Natural Light and Mountain Views, Formal Dining Room w/sliders leading to Deck Overlooking large Property and Above Ground Pool. Hardwood Floors throughout, On Main Floor is 2 Large Bedrooms with Tons of Closet Space, Remolded Full Bathrooms, The Master Bedroom has Walk in Closet and In-Suite Bathroom, The Finished Lower Level spans the Entire Length of the Home, with Additional Living Room with Fireplace, Large Bedroom, Full Bathroom, Laundry Room, Storage and Attached Two Car Garage. Excellent School System and Neighborhood! Truly a Gem, Nestled on such a Lovely Piece of Property! Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Below Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Attached,

21. 2019-01-08
    listed $440,000 Active 924-char remark

    Show marketing remark (924 chars)

    Start the New Year off, Moving in the Right Direction with this Beautiful Spacious 4 Bedroom, 3 Full Bathroom Raised Ranch. Inside, you are Welcomed into an Oversized Family Room with Vaulted Ceilings and Fireplace, Large Eat-In Kitchen with lots of Natural Light and Mountain Views, Formal Dining Room w/sliders leading to Deck Overlooking large Property and Above Ground Pool. Hardwood Floors throughout, On Main Floor is 2 Large Bedrooms with Tons of Closet Space, Remolded Full Bathrooms, The Master Bedroom has Walk in Closet and In-Suite Bathroom, The Finished Lower Level spans the Entire Length of the Home, with Additional Living Room with Fireplace, Large Bedroom, Full Bathroom, Laundry Room, Storage and Attached Two Car Garage. Excellent School System and Neighborhood! Truly a Gem, Nestled on such a Lovely Piece of Property! Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Below Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Attached,

22. 1988-11-21
    soldstatus $229,000
23. 1984-03-15
    soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $15,918 · $1,327/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,918 · $1,327/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,810
• − Property taxes: −$15,918
• − Insurance: −$3,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,375
• − Management: −$4,375
• − Depreciation: −$19,636
• Taxable loss: −$30,802
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,392
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Putnam Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624000
• Math proficiency: 73% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $94,086
• Composite: 65.26/100
• National rank: #491
• State rank: #91 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Mohegan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #417
• US rank: #7240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,361
• Population (ZIP): 8,825

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,705 people
• By 2030: 99,650 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 98,641 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 96,348 · -3.4%
• By 2075: 94,412 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 88,728 · -11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 43.2% · R 56.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+17.8 2012: R+11.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.42%
• Current HPI: 269.3211
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+482.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $715,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $715,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-17 Sold (MLS) $430,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $430,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-08 Listed $440,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1988-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $229,000 Public Records
• 1984-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $15,918 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.