5141 Draco Cir #102

Orangetree, FL 34120

$346,780C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,790 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,406/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,819
• Tax + insurance: −$730
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$715
• Net cashflow: $142/mo
• Annual: $1,704/yr
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.63%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $97,098

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $347k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (1.8% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $341k (1.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#636 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1124 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.