1869 Middle Trail Rd

Walled Lake, MI 48390

$374,900C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,314 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,473/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax + insurance: −$374
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$729
• Net cashflow: $404/mo
• Annual: $4,843/yr
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.61%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $104,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $347k (7.4% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $347k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#157 in MI, #3,969 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, health & safety D, commute F.
• Walled Lake Consolidated Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #58 of 540 in MI (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mary Helen Guest Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #328 of 1,397 statewide, top 26%, 351 students, 39% FRL); James R Geisler Middle School (math 46% / reading 62%, grade B-, #84 of 493 statewide, top 17%, 562 students, 40% FRL); Walled Lake Central High School (math 52% / reading 64%, grade C, #92 of 713 statewide, top 13%, 1,194 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 20% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $375k implies a 276% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.8% in Walled Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,473/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 514% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.