1869 Middle Trail Rd · Walled Lake, MI 48390

$374,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,314 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1958 0.40 ac lot Est $393k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained split-level in sought-after Commerce Township featuring an updated kitchen, spacious living areas, and a functional layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy abundant natural light, a cozy fireplace, finished lower level, attached 2-car garage, and a large backyard with plenty of room to relax or host gatherings. Conveniently located near parks, lakes, shopping, dining, and award-winning Walled Lake Schools. Move-in ready and full of charm! Seller excludes fridge/freezer in kitchen and washer/dryer.

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1958

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property on approximately 0.4 acre

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Residential bi-level; Built in 1958; Basement entry/foundation
• Construction: Basement foundation; Below-grade finished area (576 below-grade finished square feet)
• Exterior features: Brick and other exterior construction; Paved street frontage; Frontage approximately 63 feet

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on upper level — 8 x 8
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (Upper) — 10 x 12; Bedroom 2 (Upper) — 8 x 10; Bedroom 3 (Upper) — 10 (dimension listed as W=10); Bedroom 4 (Upper) — 8 x 10
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas fuel
• Interior features: 10 total rooms; Finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on lower level — 8 (length listed as L=8)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $347k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $347k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.8% in Walled Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#157 in MI, #3,969 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, health & safety D, commute F.
• Walled Lake Consolidated Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #58 of 540 in MI (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,473/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 514% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $375k implies a 276% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $347,315 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.61%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $393,380
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1756 Pedersen Rd	0.03mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,340 (+1%)	1mo	$399,000	$171	86
1895 Big Trail Rd	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,550 (+10%)	6mo	$385,000	$151	68
2110 Callie Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,192 (-5%)	1mo	$400,000	$182	66
1726 Pedersen Rd	0.09mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,485 (+7%)	14mo	$350,000	$141	65
1776 Welch Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,240 (-3%)	19mo	$252,500	$113	62
2138 Metzner Rd	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,088 (-10%)	6mo	$355,000	$170	60
1977 Meadow Ridge Dr	0.64mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,227 (-4%)	6mo	$353,300	$159	54
2200 N Pontiac Trl	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,523 (+9%)	17mo	$360,000	$143	52
1904 Meadow Ridge Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,146 (-7%)	8mo	$422,500	$197	52
1916 Hollingsworth Dr	0.53mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,076 (-10%)	2mo	$372,000	$179	50
2200 Quail Run Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,546 (+10%)	21mo	$390,000	$153	46
2105 Rob Rdg	0.52mi	4/3.5	2,653 (+15%)	11mo	$484,000	$182	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-41,865
• Equity at exit: $55,899

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-30,273
• Equity at exit: $32,415

Cash invested: $104,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48390

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,473 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,616/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$729
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,962

Max offer price $374,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $616	-5% $510	+0% $404	+5% $297	+10% $191
Rent	-10% $129	-5% $266	+0% $404	+5% $541	+10% $678
Rate	-1.0pp $592	-0.5pp $499	base $404	+0.5pp $306	+1.0pp $208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,725
• Closing costs: $11,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2365 Barrington Dr Commerce Charter Twp, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0	1550	$3,424	$2.21	23d	9	0.41mi
9005 Campbell Creek Dr Commerce Township, MI	3.0	2.5	1666	$3,200	$1.92	45d	1	0.66mi
7889 Arimoore Dr West Bloomfield Township, MI	3.0	3.0	2875	$5,500	$1.91	0d	1	0.85mi
6603 Berry Creek Ln West Bloomfield, MI	3.0	2.5	2445	$3,400	$1.39	25d	1	1.03mi
6423 Silverbrook W West Bloomfield, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1586	$2,678	$1.69	0d	32	1.13mi
627 Addison Cir Walled Lake, MI	3.0	2.5	1883	$3,300	$1.75	12d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $374,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $374,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $374,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $374,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $374,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $399,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,900 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-29
    listed $399,900 Active 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Beautifully maintained split-level in sought-after Commerce Township featuring an updated kitchen, spacious living areas, and a functional layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy abundant natural light, a cozy fireplace, finished lower level, attached 2-car garage, and a large backyard with plenty of room to relax or host gatherings. Conveniently located near parks, lakes, shopping, dining, and award-winning Walled Lake Schools. Move-in ready and full of charm! Seller excludes fridge/freezer in kitchen and washer/dryer.

18. 2026-05-28
    historical $399,900
19. 1990-02-26
    soldstatus $99,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,616 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,195 · $350/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,579/yr (+$132/mo · 60.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,000
• − Property taxes: −$2,616
• − Insurance: −$1,874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,334
• − Management: −$3,334
• − Depreciation: −$10,906
• Taxable loss: −$1,387
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$333
• After-tax cash flow: $5,176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walled Lake Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 2635160
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,184
• Composite: 49.57/100
• National rank: #1987
• State rank: #58 of 540 in MI

Livability — Walled Lake

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #157
• US rank: #3969

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• City population: 24,118
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 23,939
• Household income: $91,381
• Rent vs Own: 25.3% rent · 74.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 514.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Asian 7% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -344.88%
• Current HPI: 180.9641
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.04%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+300.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $399,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-28 Coming Soon $399,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1990-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $99,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,616 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.