1280 Monte Cielo Dr

Beverly Hills, CA 90210

$6,395,000D-

6 bd · 7.0 ba · 5,214 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $11,393/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$33,536
• Tax + insurance: −$8,281
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,392
• Net cashflow: $-32,817/mo
• Annual: $-393,803/yr
• Cap rate: 0.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -21.99%
• DSCR: 0.02
• 1% rule: 0.18%
• Cash to close: $1,790,600

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/7.0-bath single-family listed at $6.39M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33k ($-394k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.30M (79.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.14M (82.2% below list).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($5.82M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.14M (82.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $655k of equity ($44k loan paydown + $611k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#138 in CA, #4,810 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Beverly Hills Unified (suburban): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #61 of 517 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 12 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $4.80M; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$1.05M cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $11,393/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($188k/yr) (locally 911% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 82% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.