3 bd · 4.0 ba ·
2,550 sqft ·
Built 1989
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 128 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,529/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,307
Tax + insurance
−$323
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$951
Net cashflow
$947/mo
Annual
$11,364/yr
Cap rate
8.88%
Cash-on-cash
9.22%
DSCR
1.41
1% rule
1.03%
Cash to close
$123,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $947 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $440k).
It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $387k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#86 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety B+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Fayette County (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #7 of 174 in GA (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Cleveland Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #435 of 1,228 statewide, top 37%, 419 students, 45% FRL); Flat Rock Middle School (math 35% / reading 55%, grade D, #103 of 470 statewide, top 23%, 883 students, 46% FRL); Sandy Creek High School (math 23% / reading 42%, grade F, #104 of 424 statewide, top 25%, 1,188 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 21% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fayette County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 378 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 323 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Fayette County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $153k; list at $440k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $123k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.3% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-E5SH0G50Y17GJN
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29