874 Rocky Trail Rd

Villa Ridge, MO 63072

$130,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Active · 203 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,056/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $21/mo
• Annual: $253/yr
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.70%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($253/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (18.8% below list).
• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#619 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Meramec Valley R-III (town): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #148 of 324 in MO (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robertsville Elem. (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 155 students, 48% FRL); Pacific High (math 15% / reading 43%, grade F, #407 of 521 statewide, top 78%, 951 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 614 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (100 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $130k implies a 603% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.