874 Rocky Trail Rd · Villa Ridge, MO 63072

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · Manufactured public records · 200 Days on market

Built 1987 0.39 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 874 Rocky Trail Road, your private country escape nestled among the trees on a peaceful gravel road. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers a desirable split-bedroom floor plan and a quiet setting with plenty of room to spread out and make it your own. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity, this property is packed with potential. The detached 30x40 outbuilding is perfect for a garage, workshop, storage space, hobby area, or future mancave, with an additional shed providing even more storage options. Surrounded by nature and offering endless possibilities, this property delivers the privacy and flexibility that’s hard

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 1987

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Seller may consider concessions

Exterior

• Parking: Covered detached garage; Garage faces side; Driveway parking; Gravel driveway/parking; 4-car garage (40 x 30)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; One level; Private ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Front porch; Private yard; Storage/outbuilding; Back yard; Gently rolling, wooded and secluded setting with many trees; Adjoins wooded area

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, both on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/dining room combo; Laminate counters; Vaulted ceilings; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Washer/dryer accessible (accessible washer/dryer)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($253/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#619 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Meramec Valley R-III (town): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #148 of 324 in MO (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robertsville Elem. (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 155 students, 48% FRL); Pacific High (math 15% / reading 43%, grade F, #407 of 521 statewide, top 78%, 951 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 614 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (100 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $130k implies a 603% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $105,614 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.70%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $23,276
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 Wheel Est	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,007 (-0%)	5mo	$23,000	$23	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-19,759
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-15,624
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63072

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,056 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $928/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,029

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 200 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 199 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 198 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 197 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 195 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 194 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 191 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 190 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 189 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 184 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 183 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 182 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    status Active
15. 2025-12-30
    status Pending
16. 2025-10-27
    price $130,000
17. 2025-09-12
    price $140,000
18. 2025-07-11
    listed $150,000 Active
19. 2025-07-09
    historical $150,000
20. 1997-06-20
    soldstatus $18,500
21. 1983-09-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $928 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,261 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$333/yr (+$28/mo · 35.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$928
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,014
• − Management: −$1,014
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$1,996
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$479
• After-tax cash flow: $732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meramec Valley R-III
• NCES district ID: 2923460
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,982
• Composite: 33.65/100
• National rank: #5395
• State rank: #148 of 324 in MO

Livability — Villa Ridge

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #619
• US rank: #21413

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,930
• Population (ZIP): 3,692

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 103,600 people
• By 2030: 103,298 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 100,607 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 94,280 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 77,103 · -25.6%
• By 2100: 54,405 · -47.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.5% · R 72.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+27.9 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.94%
• Current HPI: 159.8175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+602.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $130,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $140,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-11 Listed $150,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Coming Soon $150,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records
• 1983-09-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $928 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.