1020 Nighthawk Trl

Alvarado, TX 76009

$369,900F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,483 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 194 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,366/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$616
• HOA: −$23
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-710/mo
• Annual: $-8,520/yr
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.23%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $103,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-710 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (27.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (36.0% below list).
• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $237k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#228 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Alvarado ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #416 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alvarado Int (math 49% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 799 students, 73% FRL); Alvarado J H (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 845 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 52% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 360 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.