1020 Nighthawk Trl · Alvarado, TX 76009

$369,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,483 sqft · Land · 194 Days on market

Built 2025 7,812 sqft lot $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW HOME! NEVER LIVED IN & READY TO CLOSE! Welcome to the Willow II by Bloomfield Homes—a thoughtfully designed two-story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, and an inviting open-concept layout that blends comfort, style, and function. From the elevated brick façade with an 8-foot upgraded front door to the covered front porch framed by classic gables and a bay window, this home radiates charm from the moment you arrive. Inside, the entryway opens to upgraded laminate flooring that continues through the study, kitchen, family room, and hallways, creating a seamless flow between spaces. The kitchen impresses with granite countertops, custom cabinetry, a gas cooktop, and a l

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Upgraded front door
• Bay window

Tags

• ELEVATED BRICK FACADE
• UPGRADED FRONT DOOR
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BAY WINDOW
• UPGRADED LAMINATE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-710 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (27.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (36.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#228 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Alvarado ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #416 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alvarado Int (math 49% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 799 students, 73% FRL); Alvarado J H (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 845 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 52% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 360 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,623 (36.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.23%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-105,108
• Equity at exit: $55,153

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-149,550
• Equity at exit: $31,982

Cash invested: $103,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76009

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,366 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$462 /mo · $5,548/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-710

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,265

Max offer price $267,166

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-454	-5% $-582	+0% $-710	+5% $-838	+10% $-966
Rent	-10% $-897	-5% $-803	+0% $-710	+5% $-617	+10% $-523
Rate	-1.0pp $-524	-0.5pp $-616	base $-710	+0.5pp $-806	+1.0pp $-903

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,475
• Closing costs: $11,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
237 Rock Sparrow Ln Alvarado, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,150	$1.29	9d	1	0.11mi
1089 Nighthawk Trl Alvarado, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,056	$1.23	45d	1	0.14mi
1116 Kingbird Ln Alvarado, TX	5.0	3.0	2686	$2,750	$1.02	0d	1	0.20mi
220 Cheyenne Trl Alvarado, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,500	$1.51	23d	1	1.18mi
7128 County Road 319 Alvarado, TX	3.0	2.5	3073	$4,500	$1.46	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   price $369,900
3. 2026-03-09
   price $374,900
4. 2026-02-09
   price $379,900
5. 2026-01-14
   price $384,900
6. 2025-12-18
   price $390,000
7. 2025-11-05
   price $400,000
8. 2025-10-09
   price $413,990
9. 2025-10-08
   listed $433,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,720
• − Property taxes: −$5,548
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,272
• − Management: −$2,272
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$10,761
• Taxable loss: −$15,303
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,673
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvarado ISD
• NCES district ID: 4800011
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,485
• Composite: 34.02/100
• National rank: #5312
• State rank: #416 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alvarado

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #5544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alvarado, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 22,803
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,803
• Household income: $79,755
• Rent vs Own: 22.4% rent · 77.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 298.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 17% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.74%
• Current HPI: 251.2624
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $369,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $374,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $379,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $384,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $390,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $400,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $413,990 NTREIS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $433,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $272 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.