956 Middlesex Rd

Essex, MD 21221

$180,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 1956 · Townhouse · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,790/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$297
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $172/mo
• Annual: $2,069/yr
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.10%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (0.6% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#60 in MD, #2,277 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Middlesex Elementary (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #681 of 860 statewide, top 81%, 373 students, 74% FRL); Stemmers Run Middle (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #174 of 225 statewide, top 81%, 838 students, 68% FRL); Kenwood High (math 10% / reading 43%, grade F, #161 of 222 statewide, top 72%, 1,908 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 39% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $117k; list at $180k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.9% in Essex — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.