956 Middlesex Rd · Essex, MD 21221

$180,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Townhouse public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1956 1,600 sqft lot $201/sqft · 14% below area Est $209k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 956 Middlesex Rd, a move-in-ready brick townhome offering a comfortable layout and great everyday functionality. The main level features hardwood flooring and a bright living and dining area that flows into a spacious kitchen, creating an easy space for both daily living and entertaining. From the kitchen and dining area, a rear door leads to the backyard, which may also offer additional parking potential. Upstairs, you’ll find hardwood floors throughout, along with 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. The unfinished basement provides excellent storage or future potential and includes the laundry area plus walk-up access to the backyard. A solid and well-kept home, ready for its next owner to move right in and make it their own.

Key facts

• Built 1956
• Listed 60 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.9% in Essex — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#60 in MD, #2,277 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Middlesex Elementary (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #681 of 860 statewide, top 81%, 373 students, 74% FRL); Stemmers Run Middle (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #174 of 225 statewide, top 81%, 838 students, 68% FRL); Kenwood High (math 10% / reading 43%, grade F, #161 of 222 statewide, top 72%, 1,908 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 39% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $117k; list at $180k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.10%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,768
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -13.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
747 Middlesex Rd	0.24mi	2/1.0	896 (0%)	13mo	$196,000	$219	78
738 Arncliffe Rd	0.26mi	2/1.0	1,016 (+13%)	8mo	$180,000	$177	58
724 Middlesex	0.25mi	2/1.5	1,016 (+13%)	7mo	$170,000	$167	58
1110 N Marlyn Ave	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,016 (+13%)	11mo	$213,000	$210	57
560 Chalcot Sq	0.45mi	2/1.0	864 (-4%)	22mo	$198,500	$230	55
647 Dunwich Way	0.33mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,024 (+14%)	2mo	$147,000	$144	53
1037 Arncliffe Rd	0.12mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,024 (+14%)	13mo	$255,000	$249	52
1532 Doolittle Rd	0.65mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,008 (+12%)	18mo	$155,000	$154	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-21,555
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-17,921
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21221

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,790 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,668/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,571

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $274	-5% $223	+0% $172	+5% $121	+10% $71
Rent	-10% $31	-5% $102	+0% $172	+5% $243	+10% $314
Rate	-1.0pp $263	-0.5pp $218	base $172	+0.5pp $126	+1.0pp $78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
421 Torner Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,050	$2.00	23d	1	0.34mi
1325 Fuselage Ave Middle River, MD	2.0	1.0	672	$1,600	$2.38	6d	1	0.43mi
201 Middleway Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,571	$2.09	3d	24	0.48mi
47 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,900	$1.86	25d	1	0.73mi
120 Kingston Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,950	$1.90	25d	1	0.85mi
4 Essex Ave Unit A Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	25d	1	0.94mi
433 Grovethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,000	$1.95	23d	1	1.07mi
2 Chelmsford Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1122	$2,100	$1.87	3d	1	1.11mi
2242 Graythorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,195	$2.14	45d	1	1.22mi
303 Holly Dr Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	739	$1,510	$2.04	0d	10	1.28mi
305 S Marlyn Ave Unit A Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	676	$1,300	$1.92	45d	1	1.44mi
706 Seawall Rd Essex, MD	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,900	$1.71	6d	1	1.46mi
1409 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	6d	1	1.49mi
9901 Langs Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	950	$1,485	$1.56	45d	10	1.49mi
736 West Kingsway Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,742	$1.58	21d	7	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $180,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $180,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $180,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $180,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $180,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-05-09
   price $180,000 750-char remark

   Show marketing remark (750 chars)

   Welcome to 956 Middlesex Rd, a move-in-ready brick townhome offering a comfortable layout and great everyday functionality. The main level features hardwood flooring and a bright living and dining area that flows into a spacious kitchen, creating an easy space for both daily living and entertaining. From the kitchen and dining area, a rear door leads to the backyard, which may also offer additional parking potential. Upstairs, you’ll find hardwood floors throughout, along with 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. The unfinished basement provides excellent storage or future potential and includes the laundry area plus walk-up access to the backyard. A solid and well-kept home, ready for its next owner to move right in and make it their own.

9. 2026-04-09
   listed $186,900 Active 750-char remark

   Show marketing remark (750 chars)

   Welcome to 956 Middlesex Rd, a move-in-ready brick townhome offering a comfortable layout and great everyday functionality. The main level features hardwood flooring and a bright living and dining area that flows into a spacious kitchen, creating an easy space for both daily living and entertaining. From the kitchen and dining area, a rear door leads to the backyard, which may also offer additional parking potential. Upstairs, you’ll find hardwood floors throughout, along with 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. The unfinished basement provides excellent storage or future potential and includes the laundry area plus walk-up access to the backyard. A solid and well-kept home, ready for its next owner to move right in and make it their own.

10. 2026-04-08
    historical $186,900 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Welcome to 956 Middlesex Rd, a move-in-ready brick townhome offering a comfortable layout and great everyday functionality. The main level features hardwood flooring and a bright living and dining area that flows into a spacious kitchen, creating an easy space for both daily living and entertaining. From the kitchen and dining area, a rear door leads to the backyard, which may also offer additional parking potential. Upstairs, you’ll find hardwood floors throughout, along with 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. The unfinished basement provides excellent storage or future potential and includes the laundry area plus walk-up access to the backyard. A solid and well-kept home, ready for its next owner to move right in and make it their own.

11. 2024-03-10
    historical $1,549
12. 2024-02-10
    listed $1,549
13. 2009-03-11
    soldstatus $117,000
14. 2009-03-03
    soldstatus $117,000 Sold 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Check out the value! No concern about parking-room in rear for 4-6 cars. Third bedroom possibilities in lower level w/ private bathroom. Updates include newer gas furnace & HWH-2004; washer/dryer-like new; MBD has mirrored closet doors and Closet Maid organizers inside; 5" commercial gutters front & back; sump pump-6 yrs; pull down attic stairs, wood floors under carpet. Let's Deal.

15. 2009-02-03
    historical 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Check out the value! No concern about parking-room in rear for 4-6 cars. Third bedroom possibilities in lower level w/ private bathroom. Updates include newer gas furnace & HWH-2004; washer/dryer-like new; MBD has mirrored closet doors and Closet Maid organizers inside; 5" commercial gutters front & back; sump pump-6 yrs; pull down attic stairs, wood floors under carpet. Let's Deal.

16. 2008-11-25
    price $139,900 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Check out the value! No concern about parking-room in rear for 4-6 cars. Third bedroom possibilities in lower level w/ private bathroom. Updates include newer gas furnace & HWH-2004; washer/dryer-like new; MBD has mirrored closet doors and Closet Maid organizers inside; 5" commercial gutters front & back; sump pump-6 yrs; pull down attic stairs, wood floors under carpet. Let's Deal.

17. 2008-08-08
    listed $149,900 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Check out the value! No concern about parking-room in rear for 4-6 cars. Third bedroom possibilities in lower level w/ private bathroom. Updates include newer gas furnace & HWH-2004; washer/dryer-like new; MBD has mirrored closet doors and Closet Maid organizers inside; 5" commercial gutters front & back; sump pump-6 yrs; pull down attic stairs, wood floors under carpet. Let's Deal.

18. 1988-08-22
    soldstatus $58,000
19. 1985-12-06
    soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,668 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,668 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,668
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,718
• − Management: −$1,718
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$849
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$204
• After-tax cash flow: $2,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Essex

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #2277

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Essex, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 43,487
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 43,487
• Household income: $67,340
• Rent vs Own: 37.5% rent · 62.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1757.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 32% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.14%
• Current HPI: 237.1069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.08%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+291.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $180,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $186,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon $186,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-10 Rental Removed $1,549 PROPERTYWARE
• 2024-02-10 Listed for Rent $1,549 PROPERTYWARE
• 2009-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 2009-03-03 Sold (MLS) $117,000 MRIS
• 2009-02-03 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-11-25 Price Changed $139,900 MRIS
• 2008-08-08 Listed $149,900 MRIS
• 1988-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 1985-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,668 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.