1599 3rd St

West Babylon, NY 11704

$449,900C-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,103 sqft · Built 1939 · SingleFamily · Pending · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,963/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax + insurance: −$806
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$832
• Net cashflow: $-35/mo
• Annual: $-424/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $125,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-424/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $444k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $396k (11.9% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $396k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#368 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety D-.
• West Babylon Union Free School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #148 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Forest Avenue School (math 57% / reading 54%, grade C+, #901 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 271 students, 40% FRL); West Babylon Junior High School (math 38% / reading 48%, grade D-, #370 of 729 statewide, top 51%, 804 students, 36% FRL); West Babylon Senior High School (math 92% / reading 94%, grade A+, #147 of 1,100 statewide, top 14%, 1,247 students, 39% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.9% in West Babylon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.