1599 3rd St · West Babylon, NY 11704

$449,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,103 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1939 10,000 sqft lot Est $600k · 25% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare Opportunity to Purchase 10,000 Square Ft Lot that is Zoned Both E Business and C Residence (see photo attachments) as per Town of Babylon. Information Deemed Reliable but Must be Verified. Property Sold As is.

Key facts

• 000 square ft lot
• 10
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• 10
• 000 SQUARE FT LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-424/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $444k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $396k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $396k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.9% in West Babylon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#368 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety D-.
• West Babylon Union Free School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #148 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Forest Avenue School (math 57% / reading 54%, grade C+, #901 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 271 students, 40% FRL); West Babylon Junior High School (math 38% / reading 48%, grade D-, #370 of 729 statewide, top 51%, 804 students, 36% FRL); West Babylon Senior High School (math 92% / reading 94%, grade A+, #147 of 1,100 statewide, top 14%, 1,247 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $396,265 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $600,032
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1599 3rd St	0.00mi	4/1.0	1,103 (0%)	1mo	$350,000	$317	99
1066 America Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,075 (-2%)	1mo	$655,000	$609	82
64 Montgomery Ave	0.18mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,152 (+4%)	4mo	$585,000	$508	74
249 Hampton Rd	0.42mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,075 (-2%)	1mo	$635,000	$591	70
1537 1st St	0.18mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,140 (+3%)	4mo	$620,000	$544	69
170 Van Buren St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,075 (-2%)	6mo	$525,000	$488	60
221 Amsterdam Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,037 (-6%)	2mo	$685,000	$661	58
1321 7th St	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,200 (+9%)	5mo	$670,000	$558	52
771 Peconic Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,214 (+10%)	0mo	$605,000	$498	49
214 Van Buren St	0.65mi	4/1.0	1,263 (+14%)	1mo	$627,500	$497	45
295 Silver St	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,259 (+14%)	0mo	$750,000	$596	41
214 Chelsea Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,266 (+15%)	7mo	$675,000	$533	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-75,056
• Equity at exit: $67,082

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-67,868
• Equity at exit: $38,899

Cash invested: $125,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11704

• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,963 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax from tax record: −$619 /mo · $7,428/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$832
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,007

Max offer price $443,665

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $219	-5% $92	+0% $-35	+5% $-163	+10% $-290
Rent	-10% $-348	-5% $-192	+0% $-35	+5% $121	+10% $278
Rate	-1.0pp $191	-0.5pp $79	base $-35	+0.5pp $-152	+1.0pp $-270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,475
• Closing costs: $13,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1599 3rd St West Babylon, NY	3.0	1.0	1103	$4,000	$3.63	0d	1	0.03mi
1461 10th St West Babylon, NY	4.0	2.0	1314	$4,200	$3.20	44d	1	0.45mi
1115 4th St Unit UP West Babylon, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$3,350	$2.58	0d	1	0.75mi
456 15th St West Babylon, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,995	$3.00	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-12-03
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-07
   price $449,900
3. 2025-10-21
   listed $499,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,428 · $619/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,516 · $626/mo
• Expected delta: +$88/yr (+$7/mo · 1.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,201
• − Property taxes: −$7,428
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,804
• − Management: −$3,804
• − Depreciation: −$13,088
• Taxable loss: −$8,023
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,926
• After-tax cash flow: $1,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Babylon Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3630540
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $81,114
• Composite: 59.43/100
• National rank: #924
• State rank: #148 of 590 in NY

Livability — West Babylon

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #368
• US rank: #6355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Babylon, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 40,706
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 40,706
• Household income: $129,195
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 922.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -711.75%
• Current HPI: 310.4921
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $449,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Listed $499,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,428 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.