12719 Muir Woods Trl

Atascocita, TX 77346

$215,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,856 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,171/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$718
• HOA: −$92
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-223/mo
• Annual: $-2,675/yr
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.44%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (18.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $176k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Springs El (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 688 students, 30% FRL); Timberwood Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,094 students, 54% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 682 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.