12719 Muir Woods Trl · Atascocita, TX 77346

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,856 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2002 7,522 sqft lot Est $252k · 15% under $92/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCTION. .. !!! VERY CLEAN SINGLE STORY. .. VACANT AND READY FOR NEW OWNERS!!! Spacious living with corner fireplace. Formal dining. Light & bright kitchen with plenty of counter space/cabinets, microwave, breakfast bar, white appliances, well maintained large back yard and more. .. .Great home Located on CUL-DE-SAC Welcome family & friends into your new home! Seller just had all inside painted and it looks beautiful also Seller just had foundation fixed in 05-25-2018 with a lifetime transferable warranty. MOTIVATE SELLER. .. .BRING ALL OFFERS

Key facts

• Dual vanity
• Gas fire place
• Whirlpool tub

Tags

• GAS FIRE PLACE
• AMPLE BREAKFAST AREA
• EN SUITE BATH
• DUAL VANITY
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• WHIRLPOOL TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association (ESCA/Crest); Annual association fee of $1,100 covering recreation facilities; Association amenities: fitness center, pool, playground, tennis courts, picnic area, trails; Community features: community pool, curbs, gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2002
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Private yard; Tennis court(s); Pond on lot; Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First level); Bedroom (First level); Bedroom (First level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas); Central air (Electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Gas fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room (First level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (18.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Springs El (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 688 students, 30% FRL); Timberwood Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,094 students, 54% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 681 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,625 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.44%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,416
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12719 Muir Woods Trl	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,856 (0%)	0mo	$215,000	$116	100
7115 Rose Village Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+2%)	2mo	$255,000	$134	81
18423 Yellowstone Trl	0.10mi	3/2.0	2,116 (+14%)	2mo	$279,900	$132	70
12818 Ribbon Meadow Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,941 (+5%)	0mo	$287,500	$148	69
5827 Flax Bourton St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (-6%)	1mo	$229,788	$132	65
12810 Whistling Springs Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,935 (+4%)	2mo	$314,990	$163	64
5719 Flax Bourton St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,803 (-3%)	2mo	$254,900	$141	64
18822 Twigsworth Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,589 (-14%)	2mo	$205,000	$129	57
12734 Rock Creek Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	2,124 (+14%)	3mo	$339,900	$160	57
19102 Twigsworth Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,781 (-4%)	1mo	$189,995	$107	56
18622 Timbers Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,992 (+7%)	0mo	$270,000	$136	54
7006 Garnet Hill Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,978 (+7%)	3mo	$272,000	$138	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-35,805
• Equity at exit: $52,372

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-54,133
• Equity at exit: $55,398

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 681
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,171 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$629 /mo · $7,543/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,453

Max offer price $175,625

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-101	-5% $-162	+0% $-223	+5% $-284	+10% $-345
Rent	-10% $-394	-5% $-309	+0% $-223	+5% $-137	+10% $-51
Rate	-1.0pp $-115	-0.5pp $-168	base $-223	+0.5pp $-279	+1.0pp $-335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	25d	1	0.41mi
18103 Yellowstone Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$2,371	$0.91	44d	1	0.46mi
7002 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,869	$1.08	16d	1	0.63mi
17923 Diamond Peak Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2171	$2,306	$1.06	0d	1	0.64mi
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	12d	1	0.79mi
7131 Maple Walk Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,895	$1.05	6d	1	0.89mi
5231 Flax Bourton St Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,806	$1.19	0d	1	0.90mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	44d	1	0.90mi
7315 Wisteria Chase Pl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,232	$1.00	21d	1	0.97mi
17417 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,795	$1.88	0d	11	0.98mi
18835 Atasca Oaks Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,829	$1.28	6d	1	0.98mi
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	6d	1	1.02mi
17571 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	922	$2,000	$2.17	0d	41	1.04mi
17401 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$2,139	$1.97	0d	42	1.07mi
7515 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	44d	1	1.08mi
7403 Misty Morning Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,900	$1.17	18d	1	1.11mi
6227 Spruce Bough Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,800	$1.26	44d	1	1.15mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	25d	1	1.21mi
17260 W Lake Houston Pkwy Atascocita, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1065	$2,470	$2.32	0d	12	1.26mi
17834 Yellow Birch Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,646	$1.07	44d	1	1.34mi
18030 June Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2341	$2,156	$0.92	0d	1	1.37mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,231	$0.95	0d	1	1.43mi
16848 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	1128	$2,563	$2.27	0d	27	1.44mi
14100 Will Clayton Pkwy Unit 3174 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,910	$1.37	11d	1	1.45mi
14100 Will Clayton Pkwy Unit 14133 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,910	$1.37	44d	1	1.45mi
14100 Will Clayton Pkwy Unit 3165 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,859	$1.33	0d	1	1.45mi
18018 Heron Forest Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1795	$1,939	$1.08	25d	1	1.46mi
14100 Will Clayton Pkwy Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,910	$1.84	14d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-23
   listed $215,000 Active
2. 2018-11-19
   soldstatus
3. 2018-11-15
   soldstatus Sold 569-char remark

   Show marketing remark (569 chars)

   PRICE REDUCTION. .. !!! VERY CLEAN SINGLE STORY. .. VACANT AND READY FOR NEW OWNERS!!! Spacious living with corner fireplace. Formal dining. Light & bright kitchen with plenty of counter space/cabinets, microwave, breakfast bar, white appliances, well maintained large back yard and more. .. .Great home Located on CUL-DE-SAC Welcome family & friends into your new home! Seller just had all inside painted and it looks beautiful also Seller just had foundation fixed in 05-25-2018 with a lifetime transferable warranty. MOTIVATE SELLER. .. .BRING ALL OFFERS

4. 2018-10-24
   status Pending 569-char remark

   Show marketing remark (569 chars)

   PRICE REDUCTION. .. !!! VERY CLEAN SINGLE STORY. .. VACANT AND READY FOR NEW OWNERS!!! Spacious living with corner fireplace. Formal dining. Light & bright kitchen with plenty of counter space/cabinets, microwave, breakfast bar, white appliances, well maintained large back yard and more. .. .Great home Located on CUL-DE-SAC Welcome family & friends into your new home! Seller just had all inside painted and it looks beautiful also Seller just had foundation fixed in 05-25-2018 with a lifetime transferable warranty. MOTIVATE SELLER. .. .BRING ALL OFFERS

5. 2018-10-05
   price $189,900 569-char remark

   Show marketing remark (569 chars)

   PRICE REDUCTION. .. !!! VERY CLEAN SINGLE STORY. .. VACANT AND READY FOR NEW OWNERS!!! Spacious living with corner fireplace. Formal dining. Light & bright kitchen with plenty of counter space/cabinets, microwave, breakfast bar, white appliances, well maintained large back yard and more. .. .Great home Located on CUL-DE-SAC Welcome family & friends into your new home! Seller just had all inside painted and it looks beautiful also Seller just had foundation fixed in 05-25-2018 with a lifetime transferable warranty. MOTIVATE SELLER. .. .BRING ALL OFFERS

6. 2018-08-27
   listed $199,000 Active 569-char remark

   Show marketing remark (569 chars)

   PRICE REDUCTION. .. !!! VERY CLEAN SINGLE STORY. .. VACANT AND READY FOR NEW OWNERS!!! Spacious living with corner fireplace. Formal dining. Light & bright kitchen with plenty of counter space/cabinets, microwave, breakfast bar, white appliances, well maintained large back yard and more. .. .Great home Located on CUL-DE-SAC Welcome family & friends into your new home! Seller just had all inside painted and it looks beautiful also Seller just had foundation fixed in 05-25-2018 with a lifetime transferable warranty. MOTIVATE SELLER. .. .BRING ALL OFFERS

7. 2018-08-26
   historical
8. 2018-05-30
   price $206,900
9. 2018-04-17
   listed $210,000 Active
10. 2014-12-31
    soldstatus Sold
11. 2014-12-31
    soldstatus
12. 2014-12-17
    status Pending
13. 2014-12-05
    status Pending, Continue to Show
14. 2014-11-27
    status Option Pending
15. 2014-11-26
    price $187,900
16. 2014-07-01
    listed $189,900 Active
17. 2001-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,543 · $629/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,543 · $629/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$7,543
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,084
• − Management: −$2,084
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$6,140
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,474
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2018-11-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-11-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-10-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-10-05 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2018-08-27 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-05-30 Price Changed $206,900 HARMLS
• 2018-04-17 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2014-12-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-12-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-12-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-12-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-11-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-11-26 Price Changed $187,900 HARMLS
• 2014-07-01 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2001-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,543 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.