644 Erin Hills Dr

Red Oak, TX 75154

$340,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,840 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,907/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax + insurance: −$691
• HOA: −$19
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $-196/mo
• Annual: $-2,350/yr
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $95,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (14.5% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $291k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#435 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Red Oak ISD (suburban): math 40% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #384 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastridge El (math 43% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 510 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 42% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 565 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.9% in Red Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.