644 Erin Hills Dr · Red Oak, TX 75154

$340,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 6,011 sqft lot $185/sqft · at area comps Est $356k · at est. $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

It’s crystal clear that the Quartz appeals to everyone. This popular single-story plan shines because of the great room. The layout allows you to simultaneously keep your eyes on young architects constructing forts and teenagers prepping for the big debate tournament. While they work, you can play in your extravagant gourmet kitchen. There’s plenty of counterspace for rolling out pizza dough. Set the toppings on the island and let small chefs get to work. The spacious primary suite can be your personal haven. Set up the adjacent study nook as a drop zone for the family. The guest suite is nestled next to a full bath with dual sinks — perfect for weekend guests!

Key facts

• 6,011 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: No second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $230 annually; HOA covers grounds maintenance; HOA managed by Oakmont Park Homeowners Association, Inc

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car attached garage with garage door opener and double doors; garage faces front
• Utilities: City sewer; City water; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property; Built in 2022
• Construction: Built in 2022
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5 acre lot; Lot in Oakmont Park Sub Ph 2

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1; Total of 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.9% in Red Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#435 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Red Oak ISD (suburban): math 40% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #384 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastridge El (math 43% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 510 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 42% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 565 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,719 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,703
• List price: $340,000
• Delta: -4.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
708 Winged Foot Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,962 (+7%)	2mo	$349,900	$178	78
634 Cherry Hills Rd	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,814 (-1%)	15mo	$330,000	$182	76
608 Cherry Hills Rd	0.26mi	4/2.0	2,060 (+12%)	11mo	$358,000	$174	59
545 Torey Pines Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	2,049 (+11%)	14mo	$354,999	$173	57
531 Cherry Hills Rd	0.39mi	4/2.0	2,076 (+13%)	9mo	$355,000	$171	53
546 Torey Pines Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,002 (+9%)	19mo	$349,900	$175	53
403 Hazeltine Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,002 (+9%)	19mo	$354,900	$177	50
112 Spring Cir	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,564 (-15%)	16mo	$350,000	$224	49
425 Hazeltine Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,002 (+9%)	17mo	$359,900	$180	47
153 Spring Branch Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (-12%)	16mo	$299,999	$186	46
225 Cobblestone Cir	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (-15%)	0mo	$330,000	$211	40
132 Prairie View Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,652 (-10%)	11mo	$375,000	$227	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-67,465
• Equity at exit: $50,695

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-74,393
• Equity at exit: $29,397

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75154

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 565
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,907 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$549 /mo · $6,586/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $-196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,155

Max offer price $305,406

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
656 Bethpage Dr Red Oak, TX	5.0	3.0	2600	$3,200	$1.23	1d	1	0.07mi
628 Cherry Hill Rd Red Oak, TX	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,550	$1.40	1d	1	0.23mi
225 Cotton View Ln Red Oak, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,299	$1.15	43d	1	0.27mi
220 Camden St Red Oak, TX	4.0	2.0	1998	$2,950	$1.48	43d	1	0.38mi
213 Camden St Red Oak, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,700	$1.29	1d	2	0.38mi
545 Hazeltine Rd Red Oak, TX	4.0	2.0	2126	$2,899	$1.36	10d	1	0.41mi
313 Quail Run Rd Red Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	2124	$2,314	$1.09	20d	1	1.40mi
306 Quail Run Rd Red Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,995	$1.22	24d	1	1.45mi
102 Whipperwill Way Red Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	2003	$2,495	$1.25	20d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $340,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $340,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $340,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $340,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $340,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $340,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $340,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $340,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $340,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $340,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $340,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $340,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $340,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $340,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $340,000 Active 576-char remark
16. 2023-02-24
    soldstatus Closed 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    It’s crystal clear that the Quartz appeals to everyone. This popular single-story plan shines because of the great room. The layout allows you to simultaneously keep your eyes on young architects constructing forts and teenagers prepping for the big debate tournament. While they work, you can play in your extravagant gourmet kitchen. There’s plenty of counterspace for rolling out pizza dough. Set the toppings on the island and let small chefs get to work. The spacious primary suite can be your personal haven. Set up the adjacent study nook as a drop zone for the family. The guest suite is nestled next to a full bath with dual sinks — perfect for weekend guests!

17. 2023-01-16
    status Pending 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    It’s crystal clear that the Quartz appeals to everyone. This popular single-story plan shines because of the great room. The layout allows you to simultaneously keep your eyes on young architects constructing forts and teenagers prepping for the big debate tournament. While they work, you can play in your extravagant gourmet kitchen. There’s plenty of counterspace for rolling out pizza dough. Set the toppings on the island and let small chefs get to work. The spacious primary suite can be your personal haven. Set up the adjacent study nook as a drop zone for the family. The guest suite is nestled next to a full bath with dual sinks — perfect for weekend guests!

18. 2023-01-06
    price $324,900 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    It’s crystal clear that the Quartz appeals to everyone. This popular single-story plan shines because of the great room. The layout allows you to simultaneously keep your eyes on young architects constructing forts and teenagers prepping for the big debate tournament. While they work, you can play in your extravagant gourmet kitchen. There’s plenty of counterspace for rolling out pizza dough. Set the toppings on the island and let small chefs get to work. The spacious primary suite can be your personal haven. Set up the adjacent study nook as a drop zone for the family. The guest suite is nestled next to a full bath with dual sinks — perfect for weekend guests!

19. 2022-12-23
    price $341,900 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    It’s crystal clear that the Quartz appeals to everyone. This popular single-story plan shines because of the great room. The layout allows you to simultaneously keep your eyes on young architects constructing forts and teenagers prepping for the big debate tournament. While they work, you can play in your extravagant gourmet kitchen. There’s plenty of counterspace for rolling out pizza dough. Set the toppings on the island and let small chefs get to work. The spacious primary suite can be your personal haven. Set up the adjacent study nook as a drop zone for the family. The guest suite is nestled next to a full bath with dual sinks — perfect for weekend guests!

20. 2022-08-16
    listed $371,900 Active 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    It’s crystal clear that the Quartz appeals to everyone. This popular single-story plan shines because of the great room. The layout allows you to simultaneously keep your eyes on young architects constructing forts and teenagers prepping for the big debate tournament. While they work, you can play in your extravagant gourmet kitchen. There’s plenty of counterspace for rolling out pizza dough. Set the toppings on the island and let small chefs get to work. The spacious primary suite can be your personal haven. Set up the adjacent study nook as a drop zone for the family. The guest suite is nestled next to a full bath with dual sinks — perfect for weekend guests!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,586 · $549/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,586 · $549/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$6,586
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,791
• − Management: −$2,791
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$8,146
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,955
• After-tax cash flow: $-395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Red Oak, TX is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a modern kitchen, good exterior, and hardwood floors. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting interior walls — fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value
• Both HVAC maintenance — ensures comfort and energy efficiency
• Both window treatments — updated window treatments can improve energy efficiency and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting interior walls — fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both window treatments — updated window treatments can improve energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Oak ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836660
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $71,110
• Composite: 34.88/100
• National rank: #5084
• State rank: #384 of 826 in TX

Livability — Red Oak

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #8931

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Oak, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 52,516
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,516
• Household income: $100,388
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1081.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.06%
• Current HPI: 294.5836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.99%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $340,000 NTREIS
• 2023-02-24 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-01-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-01-06 Price Changed $324,900 NTREIS
• 2022-12-23 Price Changed $341,900 NTREIS
• 2022-08-16 Listed $371,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+97.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,586 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.