625 Old Shakertown Rd

Danville, KY 40422

$70,000B-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,361 sqft · Built — · Other · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,534/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $795/mo
• Annual: $9,538/yr
• Cap rate: 19.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.66%
• DSCR: 3.17
• 1% rule: 2.19%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $795 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#85 in KY, #3,148 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Danville Independent (town): math 26% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #110 of 165 in KY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John W. Bate Middle School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #165 of 217 statewide, top 77%, 399 students, 66% FRL); Danville High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 481 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Boyle County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boyle County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 5500% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 19.9% vs local median 3.0% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.