625 Old Shakertown Rd · Danville, KY 40422

$70,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,361 sqft · Other public records · 1 Days on market

10,019 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Older home on corner lot covenient to downtown, Centre College and hospital. Features include basement, fireplaces and offstreet parking. Call today for your private showing. Case #201-397541

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $795 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 19.9% vs local median 3.0% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#85 in KY, #3,148 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Danville Independent (town): math 26% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #110 of 165 in KY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John W. Bate Middle School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #165 of 217 statewide, top 77%, 399 students, 66% FRL); Danville High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 481 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Boyle County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boyle County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 5500% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $70,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.66%
• DSCR: 3.17
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $39,260
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.07×
• Total profit: $99,297
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40422

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,534 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $248/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $795

Break-even live

Break-even rent $528

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2025-03-12
   historical $1,250
2. 2025-02-15
   listed $1,250
3. 2024-10-12
   historical $1,250
4. 2024-10-05
   price $1,250
5. 2024-09-14
   listed $1,350
6. 2024-08-03
   historical $1,350
7. 2024-07-24
   listed $1,350
8. 2024-03-26
   status Pending
9. 2024-03-25
   listed $70,000 Active
10. 2024-03-14
    soldstatus $70,000
11. 2011-08-29
    soldstatus $55,000 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (191 chars)

    Older home on corner lot covenient to downtown, Centre College and hospital. Features include basement, fireplaces and offstreet parking. Call today for your private showing. Case #201-397541

12. 2011-06-16
    listed $57,000 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (191 chars)

    Older home on corner lot covenient to downtown, Centre College and hospital. Features include basement, fireplaces and offstreet parking. Call today for your private showing. Case #201-397541

13. 2008-08-28
    soldstatus $92,500
14. 2005-11-30
    soldstatus $82,000
15. 1984-02-01
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $248 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $602 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$354/yr (+$30/mo · 143.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,405
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$248
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,472
• − Management: −$1,472
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $8,905
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,137
• After-tax cash flow: $7,400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Danville Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101440
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $34,215
• Composite: 25.08/100
• National rank: #7535
• State rank: #110 of 165 in KY

Livability — Danville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #3148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Danville, KY
• County: Boyle County · 25,950 people
• City population: 25,950
• Metro: Danville, KY
• Population (ZIP): 25,950
• Household income: $59,615
• Rent vs Own: 36.1% rent · 63.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Boyle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,908 people
• By 2030: 32,875 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 34,549 · +8.3%
• By 2050: 36,095 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 39,800 · +24.7%
• By 2100: 40,157 · +25.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Boyle

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.0) · D 34.7% · R 63.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -23.2pp · 2024: -29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.0 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+26.1 2008: R+23.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.55%
• Current HPI: 262.516
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Danville, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-96.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-12 Rental Removed $1,250 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-02-15 Listed for Rent $1,250 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-10-12 Rental Removed $1,250 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-10-05 Price Changed $1,250 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-09-14 Listed for Rent $1,350 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-08-03 Rental Removed $1,350 BUILDIUM
• 2024-07-24 Listed for Rent $1,350 BUILDIUM
• 2024-03-26 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2024-03-25 Listed $70,000 ImagineMLS
• 2024-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2011-08-29 Sold (MLS) $55,000 ImagineMLS
• 2011-06-16 Listed $57,000 ImagineMLS
• 2008-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records
• 2005-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 1984-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records