4432 Marci St

Stonecrest, GA 30039

$264,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,485 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,059/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax + insurance: −$399
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-157/mo
• Annual: $-1,881/yr
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.54%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $73,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (22.0% below list).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Anderson-Livsey Elementary School (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #736 of 1,228 statewide, top 61%, 648 students, 80% FRL); Shiloh Middle School (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #349 of 470 statewide, top 75%, 1,738 students, 75% FRL); Shiloh High School (math 22% / reading 8%, grade F, #297 of 424 statewide, top 74%, 2,203 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 47% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Gwinnett County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $109k; list at $264k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.