8993 River Rd

Lancaster, VA 22503

$235,000D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,655/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$35
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-121/mo
• Annual: $-1,450/yr
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.20%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (29.6% below list).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#489 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lancaster County Public School District (rural): math 27% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #125 of 131 in VA (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lancaster Primary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #992 of 1,108 statewide, top 90%, 316 students, 127% FRL); Lancaster Middle (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #328 of 342 statewide, top 96%, 237 students, 99% FRL); Lancaster High (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #305 of 319 statewide, top 97%, 403 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 109% FRL vs 64% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $235k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.