611 W 21st St

Kearney, NE 68845

$239,900F

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,538 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,865/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$285
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-70/mo
• Annual: $-838/yr
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.25%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $67,172

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-838/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (22.2% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $187k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in NE, #858 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Kearney Public Schools (town): math 55% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #43 of 111 in NE (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Buffalo County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Buffalo County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $240k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.4% in Kearney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.