611 W 21st St · Kearney, NE 68845

$239,900

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,538 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1930 10,500 sqft lot Est $203k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This cute gem of a home is located in West Central Kearney, tucked away from the UNK campus. The home features 2 bedrooms, 2 updated bathrooms, and a 2-car detached garage. The downstairs family room offers versatility and could function as a 3rd bedroom, as it is located adjacent to a closet. The kitchen provides ample cabinet and counter space, while the exterior offers a fenced backyard with a patio, mature trees, and flowers. Additional exterior highlights include a stucco finish, alley access to the 24’ x 24’ garage, and a full underground sprinkler system. Come take a look!

Key facts

• Alley access
• Stucco finish
• Flowers

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• PATIO
• MATURE TREES
• FLOWERS
• STUCCO FINISH
• ALLEY ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residential property; Zoning: R1
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Patio; Wood fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Water softener
• Bathrooms: One main level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Window coverings; Water softener; Gas water heater; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Wood-burning fireplace in family room/living room; Finished full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-838/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.4% in Kearney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in NE, #858 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Kearney Public Schools (town): math 55% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #43 of 111 in NE (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Buffalo County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buffalo County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $240k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $186,542 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.25%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,016
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2006 4th Ave	0.17mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,577 (+2%)	6mo	$227,500	$144	74
2003 6th Ave	0.08mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,744 (+13%)	9mo	$219,900	$126	57
512 W 22nd St	0.08mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,722 (+12%)	18mo	$228,000	$132	56
2116 C Ave	0.65mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,530 (-0%)	20mo	$92,000	$60	47
1122 W 22nd St	0.37mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,768 (+15%)	14mo	$234,000	$132	42
1917 C Ave	0.72mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+10%)	6mo	$240,000	$141	39
1302 9th Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,440 (-6%)	23mo	$183,000	$127	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-34,044
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $6,649
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68845

• Rents YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,865 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,226/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,954

Max offer price $227,558

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $66	-5% $-2	+0% $-70	+5% $-138	+10% $-206
Rent	-10% $-217	-5% $-144	+0% $-70	+5% $4	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $51	-0.5pp $-9	base $-70	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2119 State ST Apt 201 Kearney, NE	2.0	2.0	1191	$1,899	$1.59	44d	1	0.47mi
2125 Normal St Unit 201 Kearney, NE	2.0	2.0	1191	$1,899	$1.59	44d	1	1.04mi
2125 Normal St Unit 101 Kearney, NE	2.0	2.0	1191	$2,395	$2.01	44d	1	1.04mi
2112 University Dr Kearney, NE	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,450	$1.66	44d	3	1.04mi
2114 University Dr Kearney, NE	2.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$1,970	$1.93	44d	23	1.08mi
2109 Chancellors Ave Kearney, NE	2.0	2.5	1753	$2,495	$1.42	44d	1	1.11mi
2005 Chancellors Ave Kearney, NE	2.0	2.5	1753	$2,495	$1.42	44d	1	1.12mi
2122 Normal St Unit 102 Kearney, NE	2.0	2.0	1191	$2,395	$2.01	44d	1	1.12mi
2122 Normal St Unit 204 Kearney, NE	2.0	2.0	1191	$1,899	$1.59	44d	1	1.12mi
1902 W 38th St Kearney, NE	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	44d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $239,900 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   remarks 586-char remark
5. 2026-06-12
   listed $239,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,226 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,150 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,924/yr (+$160/mo · 86.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,226
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,791
• − Management: −$1,791
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$5,039
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,209
• After-tax cash flow: $371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kearney Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3172390
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,913
• Composite: 46.61/100
• National rank: #2415
• State rank: #43 of 111 in NE

Livability — Kearney

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #858

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kearney, NE
• County: Buffalo County · 20,536 people
• City population: 20,536
• Metro: Kearney, NE
• Population (ZIP): 20,536
• Household income: $76,978
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Buffalo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,980 people
• By 2030: 58,298 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 64,975 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 72,054 · +31.1%
• By 2075: 90,838 · +65.2%
• By 2100: 106,838 · +94.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buffalo

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.9) · D 26.9% · R 71.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -37.5pp · 2024: -44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.9 2020: R+43.4 2016: R+47.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+37.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.38%
• Current HPI: 218.8182
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.74%
• Metro: Kearney, NE
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+112.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $239,900 GMNMLS
• 2005-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,226 · -4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.