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Thornton, CO 80260

$144,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,714 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,626/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $1,073/mo
• Annual: $12,881/yr
• Cap rate: 15.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.75%
• DSCR: 2.41
• 1% rule: 1.81%
• Cash to close: $40,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $145k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#19 in CO, #2,583 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
• Adams 12 Five Star Schools (suburban): math 31% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #26 of 86 in CO (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Star Elementary School (math 10% / reading 15%, grade F, #854 of 966 statewide, top 90%, 361 students, 87% FRL); Thornton Middle School (math 5% / reading 12%, grade F, #255 of 270 statewide, top 94%, 732 students, 90% FRL); Northglenn High School (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #257 of 381 statewide, top 68%, 1,959 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 33% district-wide (49 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Adams 12 Five Star Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 138 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 27 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 81% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $107k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 3.5% in Thornton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,626/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1521% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.