68 View Dr

Shenandoah Shores, VA 22630

$440,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,312 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,322/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax + insurance: −$377
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$698
• Net cashflow: $-93/mo
• Annual: $-1,115/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $123,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $440k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $424k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (24.5% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $332k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#477 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Leslie Fox Keyser Elementary (math 51% / reading 62%, grade C+, #630 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 496 students, 66% FRL); Warren County Middle (math 44% / reading 65%, grade B-, #194 of 342 statewide, top 60%, 543 students, 65% FRL); Warren County High (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 833 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 34% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 283 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 76% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $440k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Shenandoah Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,322/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) (locally 460% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.