68 View Dr · Shenandoah Shores, VA 22630

$440,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,312 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2006 0.59 ac lot Est $430k · at est. $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Light & Bright! One Year Home Warranty! In-law suite w/ private entrance, paved driveway, ramps to main level & basement, wheelchair modifications, open floorplan, hardwood floors, zoned heating/cooling, granite counters, ceramic tile floors, vinyl double pane windows, private lot, recessed lighting, 4 person bfast bar, window seats, pantry, main level laundry, utility sink, wood burning fireplace

Key facts

• 0.59 acre lot
• 5 parking spots
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Not in a federal flood zone; Ground rent paid annually; Total below-grade finished area reported; Unfinished and finished area values provided by assessor/estimate
• HOA & community: HOA fee $400 annually; HOA includes road maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt driveway; Driveway parking with 5 spaces (total garage and parking spaces: 5)
• Utilities: Well water; Private septic tank; Electric service (120/240V) available; Sewer available; Municipal trash; Cable internet
• Home design: Detached property; Three total levels; Excellent condition; Finished below-grade living area (walkout level, rear entrance, interior access)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block and concrete perimeter foundation; Wood/metal shed; Building not winterized; Assessor-sourced year built
• Exterior features: Deck(s); BBQ grill; Backs to trees; Ramp to main level

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Disposal; Dishwasher; Electric oven/range; Refrigerator; Extra refrigerator/freezer; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level; One bedroom on the lower level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Wood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the upper level; One full bathroom on the lower level; One half bathroom on the main level; Three full bathrooms total; One half bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating fuel; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Attic; Ceiling fans; Chair railings; Combination dining/living area; Pantry; Kitchenette; Recessed lighting; Upgraded countertops; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Wood floors; Dry wall walls and ceilings; Partially furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Electric dryer; Main floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $424k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $332k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Shenandoah Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#477 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Leslie Fox Keyser Elementary (math 51% / reading 62%, grade C+, #630 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 496 students, 66% FRL); Warren County Middle (math 44% / reading 65%, grade B-, #194 of 342 statewide, top 60%, 543 students, 65% FRL); Warren County High (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 833 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 34% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,322/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) (locally 460% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 76% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $440k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $332,219 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $430,032
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
54 Magnolia Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,041 (-12%)	0mo	$380,000	$186	61
91 Persimmon Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,128 (-8%)	19mo	$420,000	$197	43
357 Pine Shores Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,000 (-14%)	21mo	$365,000	$183	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-59,808
• Equity at exit: $65,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $19,607
• Equity at exit: $38,043

Cash invested: $123,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22630

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,322 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,324/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$698
• Net cashflow: $-93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,440

Max offer price $423,588

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $32	+0% $-93	+5% $-217	+10% $-342
Rent	-10% $-355	-5% $-224	+0% $-93	+5% $38	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $129	-0.5pp $19	base $-93	+0.5pp $-207	+1.0pp $-323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,000
• Closing costs: $13,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 Rollason Dr Unit 1526871P Front Royal, VA	4.0	3.5	2389	$3,929	$1.64	0d	1	0.37mi
175 Easy Hollow Rd Front Royal, VA	3.0	2.5	1812	$2,200	$1.21	21d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $440,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $440,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $440,000 Coming Soon 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $440,000 Coming Soon 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $440,000 Coming Soon 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $440,000 Coming Soon 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $440,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $440,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $440,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,324 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,608 · $301/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,284/yr (+$107/mo · 55.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,647
• − Property taxes: −$2,324
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,189
• − Management: −$3,189
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$12,800
• Taxable loss: −$8,880
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,131
• After-tax cash flow: $1,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shenandoah Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #477
• US rank: #20653

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shenandoah Shores, VA
• County: Warren County · 35,615 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 35,615
• Household income: $84,631
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 460.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 319.8136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.30%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+41.9% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Coming Soon $440,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-31 Sold (MLS) $255,000 MRIS
• 2017-07-31 Sold (MLS) $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-06-23 Pending — MRIS
• 2017-06-14 Contingent — MRIS
• 2017-04-13 Relisted — MRIS
• 2017-04-13 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-01-15 Relisted — MRIS
• 2017-01-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2016-11-11 Listed $250,000 MRIS
• 2016-11-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2016-11-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-10-12 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2016-08-05 Listed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-08-05 Listed — MRIS
• 2008-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $268,400 Public Records
• 2008-05-12 Sold (MLS) $268,400 MRIS
• 2008-04-02 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-01-21 Listed $270,000 MRIS
• 2006-12-19 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-12-14 Listed — MRIS
• 2006-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,324 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.