Abigail Plan

White Marsh, MD 21162

$386,805F

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,960 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 397 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,052/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,236
• Tax + insurance: −$711
• HOA: −$65
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$641
• Net cashflow: $-600/mo
• Annual: $-7,200/yr
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.03%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $119,373

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $387k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-600 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $340k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $305k (21.1% below list).
• It's been on market 397 days — a 12% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $305k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#30 in MD, #1,037 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Vincent Farm Elementary (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #408 of 860 statewide, top 50%, 735 students, 52% FRL); Perry Hall Middle (math 15% / reading 46%, grade F, #64 of 225 statewide, top 28%, 1,754 students, 40% FRL); Perry Hall High (math 19% / reading 57%, grade F, #137 of 222 statewide, top 62%, 2,029 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.6% in White Marsh — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 397 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.