Abigail Plan · Honeygo, MD 21162

$386,805

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,960 sqft · Townhouse · 346 Days on market

Good condition $65/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Abigail is a one car garage town home with space in all the right places. Three bedrooms and three and a half baths come included in this amazing floor plan. The main living area is open and well lit. The included kitchen island is enormous. The over sized great room and separate dining area are icing on the cake. The bedroom level includes 3 spacious bedrooms, a private bath for the owner's suite and a second full bath for family and friends. The bedroom level laundry offers convenience you don't find in most town homes. The lower level is finished to include a finished rec room and full bath This floor plan has something for everyone. Pricing is for Homesite #74

Key facts

• Finished rec room
• One car garage
• Private bath

Tags

• ONE CAR GARAGE
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• PRIVATE BATH
• BEDROOM LEVEL LAUNDRY
• FINISHED REC ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $386,805 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $416,512.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $387k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-313 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $371k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $333k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.7% in Honeygo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 346 days — a 12% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $332,938 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 346 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.22%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $416,512
• List price: $386,805
• Delta: -7.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11274 Davisar Rd	0.09mi	3/3.5	2,135 (+9%)	9mo	$407,563	$191	74
5920 Monk Ave	0.15mi	3/3.5	2,135 (+9%)	13mo	$430,030	$201	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-87,351
• Equity at exit: $62,103

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-101,385
• Equity at exit: $36,012

Cash invested: $116,623 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21162

• Home prices YoY: -20.4%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,329 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$521 /mo · $6,248/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$699
• Net cashflow: $-313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,726

Max offer price $371,190

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,128
• Closing costs: $12,495
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11301 Carobel Ct White Marsh, MD	3.0	3.5	2411	$3,450	$1.43	3d	1	0.13mi
10735 White Trillium Rd Perry Hall, MD	2.0–3.0	2.0	1381	$2,755	$1.99	24d	7	1.45mi
5400 Bush St White Marsh, MD	3.0	3.0	1816	$2,595	$1.43	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $386,805 Active 346 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $386,805 Active 345 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $386,805 Active 344 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $386,805 Active 343 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $386,805 Active 341 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $386,805 Active 337 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $386,805 Active 336 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $386,805 Active 335 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $386,805 Active 332 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $386,805 Active 331 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $386,805 Active 330 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $386,805 Active 329 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $386,805 Active 328 DOM
14. 2025-07-08
    listed $386,805 Active 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    The Abigail is a one car garage town home with space in all the right places. Three bedrooms and three and a half baths come included in this amazing floor plan. The main living area is open and well lit. The included kitchen island is enormous. The over sized great room and separate dining area are icing on the cake. The bedroom level includes 3 spacious bedrooms, a private bath for the owner's suite and a second full bath for family and friends. The bedroom level laundry offers convenience you don't find in most town homes. The lower level is finished to include a finished rec room and full bath This floor plan has something for everyone. Pricing is for Homesite #74

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,331
• − Property taxes: −$6,248
• − Insurance: −$2,083
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,196
• − Management: −$3,196
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$12,117
• Taxable loss: −$10,998
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,640
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This townhouse is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. The only maintenance needed is painting the exterior siding and trimming the bushes around the front yard. The highest-ROI updates that would raise its resale or rental value are painting the exterior siding and trimming the bushes around the front yard.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Trim and bushes around front yard — Maintains a well-maintained appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Trim and bushes around front yard — Maintains a well-maintained appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Honeygo

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 14,954
• Population (ZIP): 4,511

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.58%
• Current HPI: 244.7163
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-08 Listed $386,805 Zillow