8517 Hearth Dr #36

Houston, TX 77054

$79,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Built 1979 · Condo · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,235/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax + insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$584
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-221/mo
• Annual: $-2,649/yr
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.37%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 1.56%
• Cash to close: $22,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $79k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-221 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $47k (40.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $47k (40.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Longfellow El (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 682 students, 75% FRL); Pershing Middle (math 36% / reading 49%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 1,390 students, 60% FRL); Bellaire H S (math 45% / reading 62%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 3,170 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 47% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 272 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 5583% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.