4272 Lower Kogru Dr

Anchorage, AK 99577

$285,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,773/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $521/mo
• Annual: $6,253/yr
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.84%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (2.7% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $277k (2.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ravenwood Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #25 of 156 statewide, top 18%, 479 students, 11% FRL); Gruening Middle School (math 42% / reading 60%, grade C, #5 of 36 statewide, top 11%, 589 students, 17% FRL); Eagle River High School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #5 of 61 statewide, top 8%, 791 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools average 13% FRL vs 38% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Anchorage School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 242 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $80k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.