4272 Lower Kogru Dr · Anchorage, AK 99577

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1976 0.88 ac lot Est $562k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment opportunity!!! Estate Sale! This Eagle River ranch home has endless potential! Located off Eagle River Rd, this home is surrounded by nature and mountains! You can hear the creek from the back yard! The mature landscaping is waiting to easily be brought back to life! Newer septic, well pump and reinforced french drain! Possible rehab financing available. Great floor plan with multiple flex spaces that could be a den, office, you name it! Please call for more information or to schedule your private tour!

Key facts

• Surrounded by nature
• Hear the creek
• Well pump

Tags

• EAGLE RIVER RANCH HOME
• SURROUNDED BY NATURE
• HEAR THE CREEK
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• NEWER SEPTIC
• WELL PUMP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage or carport
• Utilities: Septic tank for sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Detached; Built in 1976
• Construction: Wood frame (2x6) construction; Composition/asphalt shingle roof; Foundation details not provided
• Exterior features: Private yard; Located in a fire service area; Property is within city limits; Paved road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (total) — includes main-level primary suite
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Main-level bedroom and bathroom; Primary bedroom and bathroom on the main level; Electric service; Vaulted ceilings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (2.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ravenwood Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #25 of 156 statewide, top 18%, 479 students, 11% FRL); Gruening Middle School (math 42% / reading 60%, grade C, #5 of 36 statewide, top 11%, 589 students, 17% FRL); Eagle River High School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #5 of 61 statewide, top 8%, 791 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools average 13% FRL vs 38% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Anchorage School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 242 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $80k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $277,258 (2.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.84%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $562,440
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30924 Prudhoe Bay Ave	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,871 (+9%)	13mo	$549,000	$293	43
4156 Harca St	0.52mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,927 (+12%)	17mo	$630,300	$327	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-3,180
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $83,251
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99577

• Home prices YoY: -12.5%
• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,773 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $671/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,113

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 519-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 516-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $285,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $671 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,031 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,360/yr (+$113/mo · 202.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$671
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,662
• − Management: −$2,662
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable income: $1,596
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$383
• After-tax cash flow: $5,870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 246,594 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 28,477
• Household income: $136,900
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 315.0

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3% Black 3% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Korean 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.27%
• Current HPI: 254.3511
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.45%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $285,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $671 · +21.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.