21 Browns Rd

Grahamsville, NY 12758

$424,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,072 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,116/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,224
• Tax + insurance: −$394
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-946/mo
• Annual: $-11,350/yr
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.56%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $118,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $424k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-946 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (39.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (50.1% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($399k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $212k (50.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Livingston Manor Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #456 of 755 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Livingston Manor Elementary School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 227 students, 40% FRL); Livingston Manor High School (math 62% / reading 44%, grade C-, #934 of 1,100 statewide, top 86%, 179 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 6967% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $424k implies a 193% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 1.7% in Grahamsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.