21 Browns Rd · Grahamsville, NY 12758

$424,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1970 1.10 ac lot $205/sqft · 40% below area Est $709k · 40% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FULLY RENOVATED 4 bedroom, 2 full bathroom Ranch on 1.1 acres located in the Catskills Region of Livingston Manor. This serene retreat has it all with 2,072 square feet of living space on a quiet dead end road. Primary bedroom has vaulted ceilings with a skylight. Eat-in kitchen features white cabinets, brand new stainless steel appliances and hardwood floors. Enjoy cozy nights in the oversized Family Room by the wood burning fireplace which walks out to the screened in porch. Deck wraps around back and right side of home. Living Room has vaulted ceilings with skylight and wood burning stove. Hardwood floors throughout the main living areas. Brand new roof, windows, ceiling fans and light fixtures. All four bedrooms have new carpet. 2 Full bathrooms with bathtub. Washer & dryer hookups installed. Central air ductwork and vents installed. Livingston Manor is located just 2 hours from NYC and is known to be the birthplace of fly-fishing because of trout fishing on the 27-mile long Willowemoc Creek. Just under 40 minutes to Bethel Woods, Resorts world Casino and Kartrite Water Park. State land offers camping, hiking, hunting, skiing and lakes for swimming.

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Screened in porch
• Deck wraps around

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED FAMILY ROOM
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• DECK WRAPS AROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $424k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-946 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (39.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (50.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (50.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 1.7% in Grahamsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Livingston Manor Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #456 of 755 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Livingston Manor Elementary School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 227 students, 40% FRL); Livingston Manor High School (math 62% / reading 44%, grade C-, #934 of 1,100 statewide, top 86%, 179 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($399k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 6967% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $424k implies a 193% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $211,598 (50.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.56%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 16.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $708,942
• List price: $424,000
• Delta: -40.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $170,523
• Equity at exit: $381,973

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.63×
• Total profit: $549,215
• Equity at exit: $823,739

Cash invested: $118,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12758

• Home prices YoY: 15.4%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 16.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,224
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,607/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-946

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,313

Max offer price $256,921

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-706	-5% $-826	+0% $-946	+5% $-1,066	+10% $-1,186
Rent	-10% $-1,113	-5% $-1,029	+0% $-946	+5% $-862	+10% $-779
Rate	-1.0pp $-732	-0.5pp $-838	base $-946	+0.5pp $-1,056	+1.0pp $-1,167

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,000
• Closing costs: $12,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $424,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $424,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $424,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $424,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $424,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $424,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $424,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $424,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $424,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $424,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $424,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $424,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $424,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $424,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $424,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $424,000 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    status Active 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    FULLY RENOVATED 4 bedroom, 2 full bathroom Ranch on 1.1 acres located in the Catskills Region of Livingston Manor. This serene retreat has it all with 2,072 square feet of living space on a quiet dead end road. Primary bedroom has vaulted ceilings with a skylight. Eat-in kitchen features white cabinets, brand new stainless steel appliances and hardwood floors. Enjoy cozy nights in the oversized Family Room by the wood burning fireplace which walks out to the screened in porch. Deck wraps around back and right side of home. Living Room has vaulted ceilings with skylight and wood burning stove. Hardwood floors throughout the main living areas. Brand new roof, windows, ceiling fans and light fixtures. All four bedrooms have new carpet. 2 Full bathrooms with bathtub. Washer & dryer hookups installed. Central air ductwork and vents installed. Livingston Manor is located just 2 hours from NYC and is known to be the birthplace of fly-fishing because of trout fishing on the 27-mile long Willowemoc Creek. Just under 40 minutes to Bethel Woods, Resorts world Casino and Kartrite Water Park. State land offers camping, hiking, hunting, skiing and lakes for swimming.

18. 2026-05-19
    price $424,000 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    FULLY RENOVATED 4 bedroom, 2 full bathroom Ranch on 1.1 acres located in the Catskills Region of Livingston Manor. This serene retreat has it all with 2,072 square feet of living space on a quiet dead end road. Primary bedroom has vaulted ceilings with a skylight. Eat-in kitchen features white cabinets, brand new stainless steel appliances and hardwood floors. Enjoy cozy nights in the oversized Family Room by the wood burning fireplace which walks out to the screened in porch. Deck wraps around back and right side of home. Living Room has vaulted ceilings with skylight and wood burning stove. Hardwood floors throughout the main living areas. Brand new roof, windows, ceiling fans and light fixtures. All four bedrooms have new carpet. 2 Full bathrooms with bathtub. Washer & dryer hookups installed. Central air ductwork and vents installed. Livingston Manor is located just 2 hours from NYC and is known to be the birthplace of fly-fishing because of trout fishing on the 27-mile long Willowemoc Creek. Just under 40 minutes to Bethel Woods, Resorts world Casino and Kartrite Water Park. State land offers camping, hiking, hunting, skiing and lakes for swimming.

19. 2026-05-14
    historical $6,000
20. 2026-05-13
    listed $6,000
21. 2026-03-18
    listed $449,000 Active 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    FULLY RENOVATED 4 bedroom, 2 full bathroom Ranch on 1.1 acres located in the Catskills Region of Livingston Manor. This serene retreat has it all with 2,072 square feet of living space on a quiet dead end road. Primary bedroom has vaulted ceilings with a skylight. Eat-in kitchen features white cabinets, brand new stainless steel appliances and hardwood floors. Enjoy cozy nights in the oversized Family Room by the wood burning fireplace which walks out to the screened in porch. Deck wraps around back and right side of home. Living Room has vaulted ceilings with skylight and wood burning stove. Hardwood floors throughout the main living areas. Brand new roof, windows, ceiling fans and light fixtures. All four bedrooms have new carpet. 2 Full bathrooms with bathtub. Washer & dryer hookups installed. Central air ductwork and vents installed. Livingston Manor is located just 2 hours from NYC and is known to be the birthplace of fly-fishing because of trout fishing on the 27-mile long Willowemoc Creek. Just under 40 minutes to Bethel Woods, Resorts world Casino and Kartrite Water Park. State land offers camping, hiking, hunting, skiing and lakes for swimming.

22. 2026-03-11
    historical
23. 2025-10-06
    listed $449,000 Active
24. 2025-09-30
    historical
25. 2005-08-19
    soldstatus $144,795
26. 1999-11-04
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,607 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,886 · $407/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,279/yr (+$190/mo · 87.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,751
• − Property taxes: −$2,607
• − Insurance: −$2,120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,031
• − Management: −$2,031
• − Depreciation: −$12,335
• Taxable loss: −$19,483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,676
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Manor Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617580
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $51,401
• Composite: 44.96/100
• National rank: #5872
• State rank: #456 of 755 in NY

Livability — Grahamsville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,061

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Danish 4% Subsaharan African 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 59.59%
• Current HPI: 446.6757
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+398.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $424,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Rental Removed $6,000 ONEKEY
• 2026-05-13 Listed for Rent $6,000 ONEKEY
• 2026-03-18 Listed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Listed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $144,795 Public Records
• 1999-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,607 · +26.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.