16951 Winchester Ave

Hazel Crest, IL 60429

$195,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1926 · SingleFamily · Contingent - Continue to Show · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,436/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$331
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $571/mo
• Annual: $6,852/yr
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.55%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $571 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $192k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#229 in IL, #4,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $195k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.