7526 NE 221st St

Keystone Heights, FL 32666

$159,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,423 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,765/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $389/mo
• Annual: $4,662/yr
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.47%
• DSCR: 1.47
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester Shell Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,969 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 355 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 48% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Alachua average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $159k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.7% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.