7526 NE 221st St · Keystone Heights, FL 32666

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,423 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1987 1.01 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom double-wide home offers a spacious 1,423 square foot layout on a cleared 1.01-acre lot. Featuring high ceilings, vinyl flooring, large laundry room, eat in kitchen, bonus room for an office, double primary bedroom and a Florida room for extra living space so as the interior provides a comfortable and modern feel. The exterior is built for durability with HardiPlank type siding and a metal roof. The lot features a large barn style shed that could be finished into a guest house, art studio, music room, etc. Property has citrus trees, mature grape vines, large live oaks for plenty of shade. Just minutes to 6000 acre Santa Fe with 4 public boat ramps and parks. Home is Located in Lake Bonnet Estates, you are in the heart of Florida's lake country, surrounded by numerous recreational lakes for boating, fishing, and outdoor enjoyment Enjoy over an acre of cleared, wire-fenced land with no HOA fees or restrictions. This property is perfectly situated in Melrose, offering a convenient commute between the city amenities of Gainesville and the historic charm of Palatka.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Citrus trees
• Florida room

Tags

• DOUBLE PRIMARY BEDROOM
• FLORIDA ROOM
• HARDIPLANK TYPE SIDING
• METAL ROOF
• LARGE BARN STYLE SHED
• CITRUS TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.7% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $159k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.47%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,049
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $30,828
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32666

• Home prices YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,765 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,269/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,273

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $479	-5% $434	+0% $389	+5% $344	+10% $299
Rent	-10% $249	-5% $319	+0% $389	+5% $458	+10% $528
Rate	-1.0pp $469	-0.5pp $429	base $389	+0.5pp $347	+1.0pp $305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $159,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
18. 2026-05-07
    price $165,000 1104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1104 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom double-wide home offers a spacious 1,423 square foot layout on a cleared 1.01-acre lot. Featuring high ceilings, vinyl flooring, large laundry room, eat in kitchen, bonus room for an office, double primary bedroom and a Florida room for extra living space so as the interior provides a comfortable and modern feel. The exterior is built for durability with HardiPlank type siding and a metal roof. The lot features a large barn style shed that could be finished into a guest house, art studio, music room, etc. Property has citrus trees, mature grape vines, large live oaks for plenty of shade. Just minutes to 6000 acre Santa Fe with 4 public boat ramps and parks. Home is Located in Lake Bonnet Estates, you are in the heart of Florida's lake country, surrounded by numerous recreational lakes for boating, fishing, and outdoor enjoyment Enjoy over an acre of cleared, wire-fenced land with no HOA fees or restrictions. This property is perfectly situated in Melrose, offering a convenient commute between the city amenities of Gainesville and the historic charm of Palatka.

19. 2026-04-09
    listed $179,000 Active 1104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1104 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom double-wide home offers a spacious 1,423 square foot layout on a cleared 1.01-acre lot. Featuring high ceilings, vinyl flooring, large laundry room, eat in kitchen, bonus room for an office, double primary bedroom and a Florida room for extra living space so as the interior provides a comfortable and modern feel. The exterior is built for durability with HardiPlank type siding and a metal roof. The lot features a large barn style shed that could be finished into a guest house, art studio, music room, etc. Property has citrus trees, mature grape vines, large live oaks for plenty of shade. Just minutes to 6000 acre Santa Fe with 4 public boat ramps and parks. Home is Located in Lake Bonnet Estates, you are in the heart of Florida's lake country, surrounded by numerous recreational lakes for boating, fishing, and outdoor enjoyment Enjoy over an acre of cleared, wire-fenced land with no HOA fees or restrictions. This property is perfectly situated in Melrose, offering a convenient commute between the city amenities of Gainesville and the historic charm of Palatka.

20. 2024-12-10
    historical $1,200
21. 2024-11-07
    listed $1,200
22. 2019-03-20
    historical
23. 2019-02-16
    historical
24. 2018-09-22
    listed $89,900
25. 2018-09-19
    listed $89,900
26. 2009-12-17
    soldstatus $51,000
27. 2009-12-17
    soldstatus $51,000
28. 2009-06-19
    listed $59,900
29. 1988-07-01
    soldstatus $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,269 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$50/yr (+$4/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,269
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $2,195
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$527
• After-tax cash flow: $4,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Keystone Heights

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #1684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,542

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.77%
• Current HPI: 314.0055
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1220.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-10 Rental Removed $1,200 STELLARMLS
• 2024-11-07 Listed for Rent $1,200 STELLARMLS
• 2019-03-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-16 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2018-09-22 Listed $89,900 realMLS
• 2018-09-19 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2009-12-17 Sold (MLS) $51,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-19 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1988-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,269 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.